The market for services to support independent living in the community is large and growing quickly, particularly as the baby boomers age. The California Department of Finance estimates that the state’s population age 65 and older will increase 83% from 2019 to 2060 - from 6 million in 2019 to 11 million in 2060, representing one in four people in the state. The number of seniors in California with disabilities will increase at an even faster rate, 135%, rising from 1.2 million in 2019 to 2.7 million in 2060. Both of these populations are growing at a far higher growth rate than the state’s total population (13%) over the same period. Most of these people will need help to live independently in the community, and over 20% of Medicare enrollees will rely on Medi-Cal to pay for services to age in place - among people of color, that number goes up considerably, as 55% of Latino/x, 41% of Asian, and 34% of Black Medicare enrollees are also eligible for Medi-Cal. Significant changes to Medi-Cal are making the market more attractive for providers as California moves additional services under managed care and creates more aligned incentives to offer help. These changes began in 2022, when the reforms known as CalAIM (California Advancing and Innovating Medi-Cal) launched, and Medi-Cal started reimbursing and incentivizing managed care plans to offer a range of services that can help people live at home and thrive in the community. These services, known as Community Supports, include personal care services offered in the home or in an assisted living facility, transition services to assisted living or the home, home modifications such as shower bars and ramps, caregiver respite, and home-delivered meals.-delivered meals.
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