Before the COVID-19 pandemic, state Medicaid programs typically reassessed enrollees’ eligibility at least once a year and would disenroll them if they no longer qualified. The pandemic put that practice on hold, however, with a federal law passed in March 2020 that required state Medicaid programs to keep people enrolled throughout the public health emergency. States received enhanced federal funding for implementing the requirement. This policy--often referred to as continuous enrollment--has led to a record-high Medicaid enrollment of more than 84 million people as of November 2022. Rates of uninsured Americans have also dropped to record levels, hitting a low of 8 percent in early 2022. Overall, continuous enrollment helped ensure that tens of millions of people did not have to worry about losing health coverage during a time of health and economic uncertainty. However, major changes are coming soon. A spending bill that passed at the end of 2022 is ending the continuous coverage protection, and state Medicaid programs will once again be able to disenroll people who are no longer eligible starting on April 1, 2023. Previous analyses suggest that 5 to 17.5 percent of Medicaid enrollees could lose coverage during this “unwinding” process. The AARP Public Policy Institute (PPI) contracted with NORC at the University of Chicago to further examine the implications of the unwinding process for older Americans. NORC analyzed Medicaid enrollment trends for the 50-to-64 population before and during the public health emergency and used these data to model the impact of resuming Medicaid eligibility reassessments, or redeterminations, in this population. This paper discusses these findings as well as their context within the larger health care system. We also provide an overview of federal and state actions taken in advance of the April 1 changeover date and discuss policy options that could help ease the transition.
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