The Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model (HIPSM) is a detailed microsimulation model of the health care system designed to estimate the cost and coverage effects of proposed health care policy options. The model simulates household and employer decisions and models the way changes in one insurance market interact with changes in other markets. HIPSM is designed for quick turn-around analysis of policy proposals. It can be rapidly adapted to analyze a wide variety of new scenarios—from novel health insurance offerings and strategies for increasing affordability to state-specific proposals—and can describe the effects of a policy option over several years. The model is designed to incorporate timely, real-world data to the extent they are available. We regularly update the model to reflect published Medicaid and Marketplace enrollment and costs in each state. This report describes updates to the HIPSM methodology that incorporate data from 2022 to simulate policy alternatives in 2023 and later years. Results from HIPSM simulations have been favorably compared with actual policy outcomes and other respected microsimulation models, as assessed by outside experts (Glied, Arora, and Solís-Román 2015). Findings from the model were cited in the majority opinion in the Supreme Court case King v. Burwell and in many amicus briefs submitted to the court in that case, and they are broadly cited in top media, including the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Vox, CNN, and Los Angeles Times. HIPSM results have also been displayed on the floor of the US Senate during debate and are widely distributed among legislative staff.
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