The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARP) increased premium tax credits (PTCs) for Marketplace coverage and extended eligibility for PTCs to people with incomes above 400 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL). Consequently, Marketplace enrollment reached a record high during the 2022 open enrollment period (OEP), which ended in January. However, these enhancements are set to expire after 2022. We find that if they are not extended, 3.1 million more people will be uninsured in 2023, and Marketplace enrollees will spend hundreds of dollars more per person on premiums. Unless legislation extending the enhanced PTCs also raises revenue, we estimate that extending the enhanced PTCs will increase the federal deficit by $305 billion over 10 years. If Congress wishes to extend the PTCs, acting by midsummer would give the Marketplaces, insurers, and outreach programs time to prepare for the 2023 OEP, which begins this November.
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