[...] [Uplifting music] [Narrator:] There are more of usnow than there have ever been. We number nearly four billion. The world population willdouble in less than 35 years if we continue to multiply. Continue to add more peopleto a planet already unable to feed those of us alive today. [Music] Only in recent years havegovernments, educators, and concerned individualstaken a closer look at the inter-reacting partsthat, when assembled, portray a total image. A picture of the futureunpleasant to contemplate. [Pulsing continuous beat music] Demography, the studyof human populations, has become an increasinglyimportant tool for the examination ofalternative futures. [Pulsing continuous beat music] The acceleratingdizzying speed with which the planet isoverpopulating must be paralleled by a similargrowth in monitoring and statistics, andtheir accessibility. [Music pulsing more rapidly] The ever-presentcomputer...the machine that now seems destined tobe man's constant companion can be designed andprogrammed to provide instant electronic answersabout where we have been, where we are, andwhere we may be going. [Musical beat increases again] Information, statistics, curves,probabilities, knowledge. Can all be collected,culled, collated, and transformed intoan electronic memory available at a touch. [Pulsing music continues] [Digitally synthesized music] [Main title epic music] [The Electronic Answer] [Whimsical music] [Narrator:] This is the Computer-BasedEducation Research Laboratory at the University of Illinois in Urbana, where the computer PLATO is located. [Exterior signage] PLATO's demographicprogram is provided by the population dynamics groupheaded by Dr. Paul Handler. [Whimsical music continues] The first PLATO wasborn here in 1959. [Whimsical music] This is the heart of PLATO-4. PLATO is a fourthgeneration computer-assisted instructional system. Today's great-grandsonreflects the refinements of years of experimentationand design sophistication. [Music] PLATO is an acronym for,Programmed Logic for Automatic Teaching Operation. But heseems a person nonetheless. The system comes to lifeas a plasma display. A quarter-millionpoints of light give him the easy abilityto translate information from computer memory to visualdisplay. A display activated and changed by atouch on a keyboard. The only umbilical linkingPLATO with his display terminals is a telephone line. [Pulsing music] The imperturbable PLATOcan simultaneously communicate with more than500 display terminals located throughout the United States. Contained in hiselectronic memory are more than 100 coursesfor teaching and reference. [Music] The population dynamicsgroup is constantly expanding and updatingdemographic programs for PLATO. Statistics are instantlyavailable for more than 100 countries. [Pulsing synthesized music] PLATO can display anumber of conditions using a variety of datainto any program looking toward the future. With data such as this,the inquisitive demographer can create alternativefutures for any country. [Music continues] How do demographics function? The population dynamicsgroup, exercising a bit of playfulprogramming, introduces a computerized ground zero. PLATO carries a ringerin his memory banks. A mythical country. It is called Delta. [Electronic synthesized audio effects] Delta is created out of wholecloth, let's assume, in 1964. However, Delta has no people. For a programmer and hiscomputer, this is no problem. PLATO is asked to providean instant population. Between 1965 and 1970,Delta acquires a population of 10 million children,all under age five. No adults, just a miraculousappearance of babies. [...] [Electronic synthesized audio effects] The 1970 Delta census showsa population of 9,400,000. All children are aged 0 to 4. Some of the 10 millionbabies have died. Even with a mythicalcountry, PLATO has factored in aninfant mortality rate. [Electronic audio effects] [...] Delta's population is monitoredas these imaginary individuals grow up. Living outtheir lives in seconds. In 1975, the groupis aged five to nine. More have died. [...] In 1980, the numberis down again. Now, in 1985, theDeltans are all 15 to 19. At age 20, the females willbe entering an arbitrarily designated childbearing period. Also arbitrarily,the women of Delta will each have four livebirths by the time they are 29. Suddenly it's 1990. All women are 20to 24 years old. [...] Children have begun to arrive. By 1995, the women arehaving their second and third children. The number of children0 to 4 is nearly twice the number of youngstersaged five to nine. [...] [Electronic audio effects] The Delta women are takenout of their childbearing period at age 30. Butthe women under 30 are still having children. In the year 2000, allof the original women are out of theirchildbearing period. All children in Deltaare aged from 0 to 14. [...] No children are born duringthe next five year period. The first childrenare now 15 to 19. [...] During the next five yearperiod, from 2005 to 2010, they move intochildbearing age. Now, in 2010, thefirst grandchildren have begun to appear. Moving throughthe next 20 years, finally, the original infantsettlers are now 65 to 69. Their children are 35 to 49. The grandchildren andgreat grandchildren range in age from 0 to 29. [...] [Electronic audio effects] Twenty years later, the foundersare now 85 and older. They have nearly died out. But by now, in only90 years, Delta has grown from 10 million babiesto more than 95 million people of all ages. [...] Delta is not a real country,but the chronological march through time, with theattendant reproductive cycle of its people, is all too real. Perhaps conservatively so. [...] [Electronic audio effects] [...] [Pulsing synthesized music] PLATO can compare thepopulations and age compositions of two countries. One of the highest populationgrowth rates in Latin America is that of Mexico,where the fertility rate is more than six births. Japan, like mostindustrialized nations, is moving towardstabilizing its growth. Japanese woman, on theaverage, gives birth to only about two children. [Digitally synthesized music] This is Mexico's agecomposition in 1970. The total population is abit more than 50 million. As in the mythicalcountry of Delta, there are about 10 millionchildren in the 0 to 4 age cohort. [...] In the last 30 years,the Mexican population has grown very rapidly. [...] [Electronic audio effects] PLATO can provide details aboutthe Mexican age composition. How many children are0 to 14 years old? The answer is approximately 23million, 46% of the population. This can be contrasted withthe same age group in Japan. [...] Percentage wise, there arefewer of these children in the Japanese population. This indicates asignificantly different family sizecomposition. [...] Japan shows a somewhatdiminished number of people in the 50- to54-year-old age group. This is due to the casualtiessuffered during World War II. [Electronic audio effect] [...] The 20- to 24-year-oldcohort is quite large. These are the peopleconceived in the late 1940s, after the men came home. [...] In 1948, Japan passeda liberal abortion law. As a result, the next youngestgroup, now aged 15 to 19, is smaller. The 10 to 14 groupis smaller still. 5 to 9 is about the same size. [...] The newest cohort is larger,not because Japanese women have increased their fertilityrate, but because there are more parents in thischildbearing age group. [...] [Electronic audio effect] A tale of two countries. In both the number of children0 to 4 is about 10 million. But Japan's populationis twice that of Mexico. In Japan there is onechild for every two adults. In Mexico the dependencyrate is twice that. One child for each adult. What does this meanto the trained observer? [Electronic audio effect] For Mexico, more thantwice the educational cost load for adults. Just to maintain currenteducational levels, Mexico will have tobuild and staff schools at an expansion rateof 3.5% per year. Increasing the enrollment rateto achieve universal education would call foreven higher costs. More people means that moreof everything will be needed. [Electronic audio effects] More people is moremouths to feed. [Electronic audio effects] The population of Colombiais increasing at a rate of more than 3.5% a year. At this rate the populationwill double in about 20 years. [Music] Today, Colombian women givebirth to more than six children. The average life expectancyis nearly 60 years. [Ominous music] How many mouths willthere be to feed in less than 60 years given nochange in the fertility rate and life expectancy? This projectionassumes no improvement in the 1970 national diet. PLATO indicates that by2030 the demand for food will be eight to ninetimes the 1970 total. What are the alternatives? PLATO was asked to forecast whatwould happen if the fertility rate were to bereduced gradually to three live births perwoman over the next 20 years. [Chart displayed on computer] With this reduction, theneed for food in 2030 is only three timesthe 1970 figures. Reducing the fertility rateto two births over a 20 year period, theapproximate level today in the United Statesand Japan, yields this level of demand for food. [Chart displayed on computer] [Electronic audio effect] [...] Food production wouldhave to be doubled. This is an attainable goal. [Electronic audio effect] PLATO answers questions. Unfortunately, he cannotprovide solutions. Computers have notreplaced people. The final responsibilityis still a human one. [Electronic audio effects] The continued rate of increasein the demand for energy is the most critical problemin all countries today. With its rapidlyincreasing population, a country like Guatemaladoesn't have an energy problem. It has an energy crisis. [Dramatic music] Guatemala's perperson use of energy has been rising at arate of 3.5% every year. This growth added on tothe increasing population will mean that in theyear 2000 Guatemala will have an energy demandmore than seven times greater than in 1970. [Automobile traffic] [...] PLATO is asked to reduce thefertility rate from 6.4 to 2 during a 20 year period. [...] Even with thisthree-fold reduction, the energy demand in less than30 years is still more than six times the 1970 rate. Another alternativeis to ask PLATO what would happen if theannual demand increase rate is reduced to 2% from3.5% over a five year period? This still assuming a finalfertility rate of 2 births. The answer is still a giantincrease to four times the 1970 consumption rate. What would happen ifthe energy demand were held to a zero rate of increaseduring the first five year period? Even with the fertilityreduction program, the per capita energy demand in2000 is still more than twice the 1970 figure. [Electronic audio effects] The possible futures of acountry's educational needs and costs are alsoincluded in the material that PLATO can draw upon. [Digitally synthesized music] Primary education inBolivia costs 600 pesos a year per student. Adding students to the systementails a per student expansion cost of 7,000 pesos. Only about 72 ofevery 100 children receive even primary schooling. PLATO is asked what it willcost to educate the children who will be born between1970 and 2000, assuming no change infertility or mortality. The annual cost goes up tomore than 875 million pesos. What happens ifuniversal education is to be achieved within 15 years? [Chart displayed on computer] Now the total is1.2 billion pesos. How can these costs be reduced? The reduction of live births to2.5 during the next 20 years, along with a climb to universaleducation, is requested. The annual cost inthe year 2000 is now reported as approximately410 million pesos. The pesos not spent onexpanding primary education to accommodate agiant child population can now be used to provideother social services. [Chart displayed on computer] [Digitally synthesized music] Populations are people. They must eat, be educated,and they must work. There should be employmentfor every adult. Peru 1970. The total populationvisualized by age groups. [Chart displayed on computer] This is the labor force. The population is 13.6 million. The labor force is4.6 million, one third of the total population. This number is low because ofthe great number of children under the age of 15. In industrializedcountries such as Japan, the labor force is nearlyhalf of the total population. PLATO is asked the expectedpopulation and labor force in 1990,assuming no changes in fertility and mortality. [Chart displayed on computer] In that year the populationnumber is 26 million. The labor force has grown to8.7 million from 4.6 million in 1970. By 1990, one new jobwill have to be created for each job that now exists. An immediate reduction infertility would have no effect. Most of those in thelabor force in that year have already been born. The die has already been cast. [Speaker 1:] [Speaking Spanish] [Speaker 1:] [through interpreter]I would like to know what would be the idealproduction to satisfy-- [Narrator:] The populationdynamics program that PLATO offers presentsdemography as a living, reacting science. [Interposing voices] Gone are the endless columnsof statistics, formulas, and time consumingsearches for information. The programmers havealready assembled the data. PLATO makes it available,teaching and demonstrating, tracking generationsas yet unborn in trails of glowing light. [Speaker 2:] [through interpreter]If your country continues to grow-- at thesame rate, in order to feed your country at the samenutritional level. By 1975, you will need 18%more food than-- [Interposing voices] By 1980 over 40% more food. [Speaker 2:] [through interpreter] By 1985, more than 2/3,again, as much food as 1970. And by 1990, [Inaudible]twice as much. [Narrator:] It may appearthat PLATO functions as a prophet of doom.Casting baleful predictions of an overpopulated future. He is only the messenger. PLATO deals in hard cold facts.Using the knowledge and data embedded in hiselectronic memory. [Interposing voices] Information collectedfrom official records. Then, implementing thecomputational power of the system to projectthem forward in time. [Speaker 2:] [through interpreter]--your country is growing. [Speaker 1:] [Speaking Spanish] [Speaker 1:] [through interpreter]How many additional jobs are necessaryin my country according populational growthin the next 10 years? [...] [Keyboard clacking] [Electronic audio effects] [...] [Speaker 2:] [through interpreter] By 1975-- [Speaker 2:] --that willincrease to 1.438 million. [Speaker 2:] [through interpreter] By 1980-- [Speaker 2:] [through interpreter]--1.703 million. [Speaker 2:] [through interpreter] So youwill need about half-- [Speaker 2:] [through interpreter]--half amillion more new jobs-- [Speaker 2:] [through interpreter]--by 1980. [Speaker 1:] [Unintelligible][Speaker 2:] Half a million more. [Speaker 2:] And ifwe go on to 1985-- [Digitally synthesized music] [Narrator:] PLATO providesinstant electronic answers to questions about the future. He does not forecast the future. The machine, PLATO 4tells us only what the futures of ourcountries and the world may be. Man must choose the path hewill take toward tomorrow. [Digitally synthesized music] [An Airlie Production] [Executive producer, Dr. Murdock Head] [Produced and written by Bill Leonard] [Photographed by Bill Fisher] [Edited by, Bill Fisher, Ronald Jobmann] [Technical Consultant, Dr. Paul Handler; Director, Population Dynamics Group] [The Electronic Answer] [Produced for The Inter-American Dialogue Center] [...] [Electronic synthesized audio effects] [...]