AIDS from previous page health authorities wish to spare the victims’ relatives additional pain. Studies in Illinois and nationally suggest that the amount of under- reporting of AIDS might be as much as |0 percent, according to Dr. Rensiow Sherer of the Illinois AIDS Council, Other statistics as- sociated with the illness may be even less reliable. There is no national effort to keep track of illnesses caused by the AIDS virus that aren’t severe enough to be classed as AIDS. There is a need to begin monitor- ing the level of so-called ARC {AIDS-related complex) illnesses, the academy’s study suggested. Peopie who may carry the virus without symptoms of illness are by far the biggest group associated with the AIDS virus. Estimates are that this group could be-as large as 2 million or as small as 500,000 in the United States. Estimates as «0 how many of these people will go on to get AIDS range from 25 percent to 50 percent, and some experts believe Cngo. Trid.; 11-2-86 This alarm isn’t false: AIDS can threaten all By Jon. Van Science writer EALTH OFFICIALS and scientists, in the last few weeks, have issued new alarms Mi. about the AIDS epidemic, which is emerging as the most devas- taung health threat to face the United States this century. uick action is needed to keep AIDS, acquired immune deficiency syndrome, from taking hold in the general population, experts say. Sever- al recent reports and conferences have underlined a growing consensus that the epidemic, though still largely con- fined to homosexuals and intravenous drug users, will pose an increasing threat to heterosexuals, _Tronically, the. most alarming statis- tics cued i the Tae reports were an- nounced last June by the Public Health Service at an AIDS planning session: the five-year projection that a total of fae Unnet cases will have occurred in the United Stat with 179,000 deaths es by 1991, me 74,000 new AIDS cases and 54,000 deaths are projected to occur in 1991 alone—and about 10 percent of those are expected to involve victims who acquire the infection from heterosexual intercourse. Though they are more than four monte oid, these statistics proved to ajor attention-getters in several AIDS-related studies issued Among them: recently. @ Dr. C. Everett Koop, surgeon gen- eral, issued a report intended forthe general public in which he speils out how the virus can and cannot be spread. While endorsing chastity as the ideal protection against the dis- ease, Koop’s report also includes prac- cal advice in plain language for those who choose to be sexually active, in- cluding the use of condoms during anal or vaginal intercourse. @A Nautonal Academy of Sciences report, entitled Confronting AIDS, called for an all-out educational effort to change sexual behavior in this. country to avoid spread of the AIDS virus. Frank advice is “a life and death matter” in educating the young and munorities in how the disease is spread and how they can avoid it, the authors @ Dr. Lonnie Edwards, Chicago health commissioner, said his office estimates that 30,000 to 50,000 city residents carry the AIDS virus and are capable of Passing it to others through sexual activity. His office projects that the city will have seen 13,000 AIDS cases within five years. All this anticipates that the number of AIDS cases will continue its mete- oric expansion. Roughly, the number of AIDS cases has been more than doubling every year since the disease was discovered in 1979. Nearly 27,000 AIDS cases have been feported in the United States, and more than 15,000 of those have died. Amid this weiter of statistics, there are questions about how reliable the coun- ys AIDS numbers are. © National Academy of Sciences study raised some questions, noting that some AIDS cases and even deaths go unreported because local doctors or Cont'd on next page that the rate may become even higher with the passage of time—if incubation periods prove to be Jonger than is assumed. Estimates of the overall infection rate begin with such difficult tasks as trying to determine how many people fall into high risk categones for AIDS, including homoseaual men or users of illicit’ drugs who share needles. Estimates of these numbers are then compared with known percentages of AIDS virus infection in some urban areas to project a national figure. ough the estimates may be subject to many faults, they must be accepted at.present as the basis for planning to cope with the AIDS epidemic, but new studies aimed at obtaining more accurate statistics must be undertaken, the academy’s report said. It rejected as impractical, proba- bly unethical and virtually impos- sible any attempt to test everyone in the country for antibodies to the AIDS virus. Behind much of the renewed ur- gency in addressing the AIDS question is the fact that the virus has an incubation period of at least five years, a fact that allowed it to spread rapidly through many homosexual communities before anyone was even aware it ¢xi There is concern among health officials and researchers that a similar spread through a sexually active portion of the heterosexual community could be occuring now, with the general public lulled into complacency by the wide- spread belief that the epidemic is inherently limited to homosexuals and drug addicts. For that reason, the academy’s report spoke about referring to “high risk activities” rather than high nsk groups: The disease is ai- ready established in Africa on an equal footing in men and women. A year ago, | percent of the victims in the United States were classed as heteroseauals who were not intavenous drug users. Today 2 percent are in that category, ex- cluding immigrants from Africa or Haiti. By 1991, it is expected that 10 percent of AIDS victims will be heterosexuals. The science academy’s study noted that blacks and Hispanics already suffer a disproportionate amount of AIDS. In the near fu- ture, the study said, heterosexuals at highest risk for AIDS will be those who consort with prostitutes or drug users. Teens who are at an age where experimentation with sex and drugs often occurs are seen by the academy’s scientists as being in greatest need of frank and factual information about how the AIDS virus is spread and how to avoid it, Since the disease was discovered, there has been a tendency for the federal government to foster an ‘optimistic view among the general public. Once the virus was iso- laced, for example, Margaret Heckler, then secretary of Health and Human Services, held a press conference to predict that a vac- cine would be developed within a few years. / Dr. Koop’s report was definitely a step away from government-en- couraged complacency and a move in the direction urged by the academy’s report, which calls fora billion-dollar federal, public heaith education campaign. The events of the last few weeks apparently herald a new, more di- rect approach to the AIDS prob- lem. Tt will likely lead to much more frank and graphic public dis- cussions of sex, inctuding wide- spread advertisements for con- doms. “People have to understand,” said Sherer. “The era of being gen- teel about sexuality is long past. We just can’t afford it anymore.”