July 6, 1971

Dr. Philip Handler

National Academy of Sciences
2101 Constitution Avenue
Washington, D.C. 20418

Dear Phil,

Thank you for your letter of June 29 concerning a prospect of
study of the effects of nuclear war.

This past year I have been teaching in a course on arms control,
as part of an ad hoc faculty organized by John Lewis. In thinking about
future activities of our group we indeed discussed a research effort
precisely along the lines of the proposal in your letter, At that time
I expressed serious reservations about the value of such a project;
I must say that I believe I was in the minority and some of my colleagues
may take it up again notwithstanding. However, ay reservations may also
pertain with equal validity (and perhaps unpopularity) to the present
issue.

My concern is that the projected study would hardly differ from
a weapond effects protocol of the kind that has undoubtedly been
sponsored many times by the Department of Defense. A scientific study
of weapons’ effects may indeed reveal some unexplored possibilities for
maximizing the level of destruction that could be predicted from a
given payload, This would be expected to motivate further technological
development, particularly in the framework of efforts to limit overall
weapons’ payloads by negotiation and the discounting of an opponents
capability to attempt a first strike reduction in retaliatory force.
Such studies have a role in our defense strategic planningbbut I do not
think they warrant the auspicéesof an academy contribution to the cause
of peace and disarmament.

There is gome merit in the counterargument that our present deterrent
is overscaled on account of underestimates of the secondary consequences
of even an abridged nuclear attack.1f this were more widely understood
on both sides it might facilitate a mutual de-escalation of the arms race
and enlarge the zone of indifference to the absolute capabilityes of
either side, However, it would also point the way to countries with
marginal nuclear capabilities and generate temptations that would erode
the tenuous fabric of non-proliferation, "If just one bomb could be
made really that terrible perhaps it is worth owning after all".

over
Dr. Philip Handler -2- 7/6/71

All in all I fear that the project would backfire in terms of
its intended political effect, especially on the young people
mentioned in your letter. The students I have talked to are all
too well aware of the destructive potentiality of nuclear weapons!
Some of them do not know but perhaps do not need to know the
physical details, They do indeed harbor contradictory allusions
but at a political rather than a weapons-technical level, They
believe we are safe from nuclear attack because of our own deterrent,
On the other hand they still condemn work on strategic weaponry as a
distortion of seience which kills people. And these youths are

a

fhoroughly compartmentalized. U4 ee

If you wish to orient a study in this general arena more likely
to have the impact you seek, I would suggest a consideration of 1) how
to probe and influence the level of destruction that any side would
in fact judge to be “unacceptable” and 2) how to aecaomplish a
separation in the student ethos, perhaps necessarily also in the
adming&trative apparatus, in attitudes about technology for strategic
defense versus tactical offense, These are not issues for which
expertise in the natural sciences is especially relevant, we must agree.

I realize that my misgivings may be too feable, too ,articulate,
or too tardy to influence the decision to proceed with the study. In
that event, surely, if it is to be done it mst be done well! I will
give some thought to your solicitation for names of people who might
assist in the study, It would help me focus my thoughts if you could
give me some further indication of when it would begin and the character
and duration of the commitment to be expected to be required, Herb York
ig one of some few names that comes immediately to mind as a candidate
to share th: study, There is an obvious merit in finding someone who
had been privy to the secrets but is now sufficiently disengaged from
both government and over-riding organizational responsibilities,

Sincerely yours,

Joshua Lederberg
Professor of Genetics

JL/rr