THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION

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Foreign Policy Studiez Program

jsteinbruner @brook.edu
August 4, 1995
To: Harold Smith
From: Joshua Lederberg, John Steinbruner
Re: The Initial Part of a Business Plan

In our meeting on July 21, we proposed an initiative designed to bring about the complete
termination of offensive biological weapons activities in Russia. The basic idea is to set up
sustained collaboration for the legitimate purpose of preventing infectious diseases and to induce
those who have been implicated in BW activities to transfer their allegiance to that effort. If
properly designed, such an arrangement would establish a substantial positive incentive for
compliance with the BWC directed to the individuals and institutions immediately involved in
BW activities. It would also substantially increased the risk of detection for those who attempt
to resist compliance. You requested that we prepare the equivalent of a business plan for pursuing
this idea.

Clearly such an arrangement would have to be developed in stages, and it is important
to have Russian involvement from the outset. Quite a bit of thought and some judicious
consultation is necessary, therefore, before a full plan could be advanced. What we can
immediately provide are some practical steps for initiating the process.

The approach we suggest utilizes the personal and institutional connections that have
already been established in the course of discussions of biological weapons problems conducted
by the respective Russian and Unites States National Academy of Sciences. A proposal for
collaboration that emerged from these discussions is attached to this memorandum as a reference
document. It provides a natural context for immediate action.

We use the word “action” deliberately. We believe we can identify appropriate Russian
collaborators for launching this initiative, but we doubt they will respond to an exercise of simply
formulating a proposal. They are saturated with promising ideas that produce no practical results,
and they are living under desperate circumstances. An immediate project is required to establish
seriousness of purpose.

With this in mind, we propose an initiating plan consisting of three principal elements:

1. A mandate issued to the National Academy of Sciences to establish two
collaborative research projects; first, the "paleo-pathology" project mentioned on
page 7 of the reference document; and, second, an analysis of the natural incidence
of anthrax. The first project would specifically involve the Institute of Molecular Biology

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at Koltsovo (referred to as NPO Vector) and the second would specifically involve the
Institute of Applied Microbiology at Obolensk, but both projects would be designed to
include other Russian collaborators as well.

2. A special committee established by the National Academy of Sciences to design an
institutional arrangement for detecting, preventing and treating especially dangerous
diseases. The committee, which would include Russian and other appropriate international
participants, would be asked to issue a report provisionally identifying the most dangerous
pathogens and specifying how the basic functions of research, monitoring, assessment and
treatment would be performed for these pathogens and the diseases they cause. It would
also be asked to develop the institutional design as a collaborative extension of the current
activities of NIH, CDC, and USAMRIID in the United States and their counterpart
institutions in Russia.

3. The drafting of legislation that might be enacted by both the United States
Congress and the Russian Duma establishing legislative oversight over all activities
related to the most dangerous pathogens and imposing criminal sanctions on any
individual participating in the application of these pathogens to offensive weapons.
An extensive process of discussion and refinement would undoubtedly be required to
develop such legislation to the point that it could actually be enacted, but it is important
to introduce the basic principle of systematic national oversight in the initiating phase. It
is also important to introduce the idea that national oversight should reflect international
standards.

We believe that the two projects envisaged in the first element of this initiating plan can
be started within six months and that a budget of $1 million for 18 months of operation of the
two projects would probably be adequate. We believe it is important to complete the second
element of the plan within a year, but this will require an expedited schedule and a sense of
urgency. Given the need for broad participation and a forced pace, a budget of $2 million for a
year might be required. The third element can be accomplished by a small drafting group of
American and Russian lawyers acting as a subgroup of the committee designing overall
institutionalization. This third activity could probably be accomplished with a budget of $100,000
or less. If this basic approach is agreeable to you, we will ask the National Academy of Sciences
to prepare formal budget estimates for these activities.

We acknowledge that in enacting these initial steps it might not be possible to engage
the people and the institutions on the Russian side whose activities are of greatest immediate
concern. If the initial steps are accomplished, however, they will provide the foundation for a
subsequent phase designed to involve the MOD institutes at Sergiyev Posad (Zagorsk),
Ekaterinburg, and Kirov.

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