SUMEX STANFORD UNIVERSITY MEDICAL EXPERIMENTAL COMPUTER RESOURCE RR-00785 ANNUAL REPORT - YEAR 16 Submitted to BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH June 1, 1989 STANFORD UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE Edward H. Shortliffe, Principal Investigator Edward A. Feigenbaum, Co-Principal Investigator DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH DIVISION OF RESEARCH RESOURCES BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM ANNUAL PROGRESS REPORT PART L., TITLE PAGE . PHS GRANT NUMBER: . TITLE OF GRANT: . NAME OF RECIPIENT INSTITUTION: . HEALTH PROFESSIONAL SCHOOL: . REPORTING PERIOD: 5a. FROM: 5b. TO: . PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: 6a. NAME: 6b. TITLE: 5 P41 RROO785-16 SUMEX — Stanford University Medical Experimental Computer Resource Stanford University School of Medicine 08-01-88 07-31-89 Edward H. Shortliffe, M.D., Ph.D. Associate Professor of Medicine and Computer Science 6c. SIGNATURE: — Ebua eal kL. Lelie. . DATE SIGNED: . TELEPHONE: June 1, 1989 415-723-6979 5 P41 RROO785-16 Table of Contents Table of Contents: J. Title Page wo... .iecccssscccccssssscccesssessecesssssceeesessenceeeseeseessensessesseeseesensecaseuasaaseesoes 1 II. Description of Program Activities ........:.ccccsssssscnesccseesseersssseeecesesssesessesaeans 3 TILA. Scientific Subproject ............ccccsscsccccsssssnscccececesesccseesssceacccessnsesccaeeeness 3 TI.B. Books, Papers, and Abstracts ............c:::sccceressesesssssssesneceeseonessseeeeecesecs 3 ILC. Resource Summary Table ............:cccccsssssensecccesceeceseesscacceeneeeesssseeeasees 3 TIL. Narrative Description. ...............cesceseseeeeeeceeeeeeeeeseeseeeeecesseeeensosseessasnesssenseees 5 TIT.A. Summary of Research Progress ..........ssssccssesesssscsssesencceeceessosssneseeesees 5 THL.A.1 Resource Overview .........s:::cccsssssecscessecessssensscseceeeseessscreasoesooenees 5 TH.A.1.1 SUMEX-AIM as a ReSOurce ..0........eeecesesseereeeeseeesseseneeeees 5 T1.A.1.2 Significance and Impact in Biomedicine .............eseeeeeeee 11 TII.A.1.8 Summary of Current Resource Goals ............ccsccceesseereeees 12 TT.A.2 Details of Technical Progress............sscscccsccceseessscseeeesscsecssssseeees 16 TILA.2.1 Key Areas of Progress ...........:ccccssssssessscsecceeecseseenceneeeeeeeeees 16 TIT.A.2.3. Core ONCOCIN Research .......sessssssssecsescsstecseessseeseeesseeens 26 (1) Overview of the ONCOCIN Therapy Planning System......... 26 (2) Implementation of the ONCOCIN Workstation in the Stanford Clinic .0.......cessssssessssscnscsenssessessnsnssssncecesecseeeaereee 27 (3) E-ONCOCIN: Domain Independent Therapy Planning ....... 28 (4) OPAL: Graphical Knowledge Acquisition Interface............. 29 (5) Generalized Knowledge Acquisition through PROTEGE... 31 (6) Speech Input to Expert Systems ..........ccccsssseccessteerseseereeeeeee 31 (6.1) Prototype Speech Hardware/Software System ............. 31 (6.2) Speech Experiment ..........c:cccccsessseesneccceserseseensceeteeeeeess 33 (7) Object Language Support for ONCOCIN Project.................. 34 (8) Personnel ..0............cccccescesecececeescetssesseseeeseeeseesesseseesessessenteeesess 34 THA.2.2. Core AI Research ...........cccsscscsssscssccenccenseccecaeeeeeseeeeeesereners 36 (1) Ratiomale.........cccccccessseneenscsecceccecceseeeccceceeeseeeceseesstcereeteeseetes 36 (2) Highlights of Progress..........:sccccccscsssesssenseseeecessesesceeeeeeeseteeees 37 (2.1) Large Multi-use Knowledge Bases for Science and EXMGIne ering ............:::cscsesseeceececcecenaaeececsnceccesccecneececseserees 37 (2.2) Adaptive Intelligent Systems ................c::ssccceceesesseneeeeee 40 (2.8) Advanced Architectures...........:ccccccccccesssscesceeereeeseseneseees 41 (2.4) Knowledge Acquisition and Machine Learning............ 45 (2.5) Symbolic Simulation... ccccssecccencnnececceeceeeeeeesoeeees 45 TI.A.2.4. Core System Research and Development................000006 47 (1) Introduction and Overview .........csccsccccssssscnsscncnscseceesceteceeesos AT i E. H. Shortliffe Table of Contents 5 P41 RROO0785-16 (2) The Phase-Out of the DECSystem-20.........e ee eesseeeeoeseneeeees 49 (3) The New SUN-Based SUMEX-AIM Resource..................000 51 (3.1) File Access and Management.............csccccssssssceereesereers 52 (3.2) The SUMEX Perpetual Archive System..............::000: 53 (3.3) Printing Services.............:ccccccsssssessscssssrcecesnseeceseesssseeseees 55 (4) Electromic Mail ............ccccccsssssccssccesssssctercessneccsssecceseeesnessaaenenses 56 (4.1) Macintosh client - MacM............ccsssssscessesseesressseeseees 58 (4.2) Mail Reader User-Interface.............c:ccessscecesessseeceeeseeees 58 (4.3) The Mail Composition User Interface ...............::::ee00 60 (4.4) Texas Instruments Explorer Client.............eccceeeseeees 60 (4.5) DEC-20 IMAP2 Server ..............scccccessscsesereeceessseesseeeeeees 60 (4.6) UNIX IMAP2 Server..........ccccccssessessessssesceseensenecsseeseeseees 61 (4.7) Transition Strategy and Plan............cccccccccssececceseeeeeees 62 (5) Lisp Systems..............ccscsccseccessscessesseceesceeeescceeseeetensceeeerenseeeaes 62 (5.1) Stamdards ......ccecccccccccscccssesscceseecsccessecneeseeesseesseceseeeaes 62 (5.2) Lisp System Performance...............:ccescccseccceseeeeeeceesseeeees 63 (5.3) Lisp Programming Environments ...............:::esseceee w. «65 (6) Workstation System Environments ............:cccccccccceseeeeesseeees 66 (6.1) Macintosh IT Workstations. ...............:ccssenceseseeseeseeneeeees 66 (6.2) Texas Instruments Explorer6............ccccccccsssecececetereeeees 68 (6.3) SUN Workstations ..............cccccssssssssecsscscceseseneceneceeeseeeees 72 (6.4) NeXT Workstations ..........cccccsessscssessecssscsssessesessrsenseess 73 (6.5) Xerox D-Machines............ccccsscsscsecccscssssreneeceesseeseeeeeseneeeees 75 (6.6) Symbolics Lisp Machines ...............cccccscssecceesssnceeceneereees 79 (6.7) HP 9836 Workstations...............cccsscsseseccessnssceceeesseesesees 80 (7) Remote Workstation Access, Virtual Graphics, and WIndWS ......cccccsssseccsssccessstcessescecsnenseeseseecessceeseeceseesanecsecenseees 80 (7.1) Remote AcceSS..........:cccccccssssssecccsessencceseneccecsssnsceeeeeceeseees 80 (7.2) Virtual Graphics and Window... ...........:cccccesssseessesssseeees 80 (7.3) Remote Graphics Applications..............ccccccesssecceeesseeees 81 (8) Network Services ..........::ccssesccscsssceeceseecesssecsnesesscesenscseeseseess 84 (8.1) National and Wide-Area Networks...............ccccccceeeseeee 84 (8.2) Local Area Networks - LAN'S..........ccsscceccsssneereceteceseees 86 (9) Distributed Information Resources and Access .............cc0008 88 (10) Distributed system operation and management................ 90 TiT.A.2.5. Relevant Core Research Publications ............cceccceeeeees 91 THI.A.2.6. Resource Equipment. .w.........ccccccccessesssstcecsseteeeeeeeneeseeseeees 98 (1) Purchases This Past Year..........ccccccccccccsssssssecceeeeceeeeeeeeseeeeeees 98 (2) Current Subsystem Configurations ..........:::.::ccceessceceereeteeeees 100 E. H. Shortliffe i 5 P41 RROO785-16 Table of Contents THI.A.2.7. Training Activities ............ccccsssccccssseeecccesstecesessssssencessesecs 105 TII.A.2.8. Resource Operations and Usage ...........ssessescssssereesseseeenes 108 (1) Operations and Support...........ceeseesseeecseeeeseesceenaeenseneueeeeeess 108 (2) Resource Usage Details .0............cseccccessreceecsseeeeeseeeeeeceeeeseesooses 108 (2.1) Overall Resource Loading Data ...........cccceseeseeeeeeeteeeeene 109 (2.2) Individual Project and Community Usage ..............06 110 TH.B. Research Highlights .0..........cccccsescccesessseseeeesssceesesssneneesssstaeeusorsesensees 117 — TIB.1. INTERNIST-U/QMR .......:.ccccssscseesssecsseseesacessecceessercesesseeoesensaee 118 THI.B.2. Path Finder.............cc:sscssscssssssccsercccsaccccessesaccceesesesesneuneesseeneneusaes 119 III.B.3. The Distributed SUMEX-AIM Community ..........cccessssssereerees 120 THI.B.4. ONCOCIN .........cccccccccsssscccesssecesssnsersssecesceeeceeseeceececeesceeeseeseeeeses 121 TIL.C. Administrative Changes...........ccssccccssssessesseeeceeeseessccsseeecessosseenensoenes 123 III.D. Resource Management and Allocation ............:.c:cssscesesenenceeeeseeseoeees 124 TII.D.1. Overall Management Plan................eceeeeeesceceeessneconeenereeseeeeensens 124 TTI.D.2. Cost Cemrter........cccccccssssssesccscssssscesessssssssccsssssccenenseseeseessssssueoeeens 124 II.E. Dissemination of Resource Information ...............ccssscsccesseeereeceeseeees 127 THL.E.1. Software Distribution...............ccccssssscccssscreecseeceeesssserceeeeeeeesssees 127 ITL.E.2. AIM Community Systems Support..............ccssscsceessessencceeeeeeees 128 TH.E.3. Video Tapes and Films... cesesceceesnceceseeeeceeensessesseseeeaes 128 TIT.B.4. Special Seminar ..........sccesssscsssssssesesseressssscensecteseneeeseesessessetens 128 TILF. Suggestions and Comments ..............:ssscccsssssecessssnerceesceaeeeeneeessssseceaens 129 TH.F.1. Resource Organization ..............cccscccecesseteceeeseeceeetessesereessessssaanars 129 TILF.2. Electronic Communications ............cccccccssssccesseserctesssneeeeeeessoesees 129 IV. Description of Scientific Subprojects...............c:cscccsssceccesseeeeessssseeeeeeeesesesees 130 IV.A, Stamford Projects............ccccccssssssseccsssssnsnesecsssceesesenceceseesneneeeeessessennneees 131 IV.A.1. Guardian Project............cccscccccssssccesssscessnseesesecsseneeeeneneeteceeneeeeoees 132 TV.A.2. MOLGEN Project........ccccccccssccscescescssssnsssaceececsssessecscesenceteeeeeseoees 137 TV.A.3. ONCOCIN Project....cccccccccscccccccssseeseecssseesecessaceseesesenseeeeeeeeseses 143 TV.A.4. PENGUIN Project..........ccccessssesssssssccccceccssssncenenerssestseceaaaaeesooes 157 TV.A.5. PROTEAN Project .........ccccsssssssccccccccccssssenscneccesssssssenccesecnneceseetee 166 IV.A.6. Reasoning Under Uncertainty .............:cccccsscsseeeceeceeeeeeeceeeeeteeeees 174 IV.A.7. VentPlan Project ..........ccccsssssssssccccesccccssssnsncneeseesssnnsessensenaessonooes 183 IV.B. National AIM Projects ..............cccccccecececcececeececcesceceenscneeeseseereeoesoaaaaaas 190 IV.B.1. INTERNIST-/QMR, Project .............csssssesseecceeesssereneeneenseeeeeesenens 191 IV.B.2. MENTOR Project........cccccccccceseseesesssseeeseccessssusenneeceteeseeeeeseseeneetes 197 lii E. H. Shortliffe Table of Contents 5 P41 RROO785-16 IV.C. Pilot Stanford Projects............ccccccssssssesscseenes uessssreasuasonsevacraessiseesesese 202 IV.C.1. REFEREE Project...............:ccscssessesseseesecseeseeseeesesessseseneeesesseeeenees 203 TV.D. Pilot AIM Projects...........cccccsscscsssesseccesesssseecersessseueeseescecesessaaeesesesaeees 210 IV.D.1. The Pathfinder Project...............ccccccccsecesseecesesssceesceececenssnsnnncecess 211 Appendix A: Knowledge Systems Laboratory Brochure............. passesseneceeesssnees 219 Appendix B: Lisp Performance Studies .0..............sscsssssssssccecetessessescenersesssesenees 229 Appendix C: AIM Management Committee Membership.................::ceeeeeee 261 List of Figures: Figure 1. NSFNet Configuration as of January 1989 ............sseecsseeesesseeeeeees 85 Figure 2. SUMEX-AIM DEC 2060 Configuration ..............ccsececeeeseeesteeeeeneeeees 100 Figure 3. SUMEX-AIM SUN-4 Configuration. ............ccssscccccccsssssessercensesssseenes 101 Figure 4. SUMEX-AIM SUN-83 File Server Configuration .............s:cscccssseeees 101 Figure 5. SUMEX-AIM Xerox File Server Configuration..............c:sccccssesees 102 Figure 6. SUMEX-AIM VAX File Server Configuration..............cccccssseereeeesees 103 Figure 7. SUMEX-AIM Develcon X.25/TCP-IP Gateway Configuration ...... 103 Figure 8. SUMEX-AIM Ethernet Configuration ............::cccssscccsesioressossereeeeees 104 Figure 9. Total CPU Hours Consumed by Month ..........ccccccceesececceneseesseneees 110 Figure 10. CPU Usage Histogram by Project and Community ................:06 111 Figure 11. Table of Resource Use by Project .............ccccccssessensecceseessrnseeeceseees 112 E. H. Shortliffe iv