LICK, 91 WED 2eAPRe75 12844PM Ed, Here's my copy, == Les *O2"APR@75 0534 network site ISI Date! 2 APR 1975 0534ePpYr Fromt LICKLIDER at USC#ISI Subject: Retransmission of 'Easter Message! Earlier Sent to 'Ernest! Tos LES at SUmAT ect Licklider The purpose of this Easter note is to bring vou up te date om a development in ARPA that concerns me greatiy += and will, J think, also concerm you, It is the continued and accelerating (as I Pereeive it) tendencys on the part of the ARPA front office, to devalue basic research and the effort to bulld up an advanced selence/tecknology base in favor of applied research and develepment aimed at directly solving om an ad hoe basis some of the pressing problems of the DoD, Let me be clear that I am strongly in favor of ARPAtsS contributing maximally to the solution of pressing DoD problems, What concerns me (8 thaty whereas I see the maim hope im the creation of mew methods and farwadvanced systems based on mew methods, the prevailing direction {m ARPA (8 to do researeh within the specific contexts of military problems == and not to do research that does not have a military 'huyer! peady to take it over as soon as the concept gets well formulated, The present indications of this directe application=oriented trend are strong pressures form the new Director, George Hellmeier, that IPTO !redirect! the university Al efforts to work om problems (vehicles) that have real DoD validity, criticisms of the Speech Understanding and Image . Understanding programs for not being tied directly into application projects that will be taken over and supported by the Services, strong emphasis om Software Technology efforts that will have effects in the short term (with strong pressure to dewemphasize longeraterm research Such as that om fully automatic programming), amd, in general, a tendency to evaluate IPTO programs by askina peoole in the Dot offices (which would use or preside over the use of eventual applications of our stuff) what they thimk of the programs, Im the case of AI Cor Intelligent Systems, IS, as the sub= element of the IPTO program is called in local panmerwork == IS now includes three subwsubelements! Aly Krowledge=Based Computer System Applications, and Intelligent Terminals), the situation is comoticated by the fact that ARPA has been supporting basic pesearch at a rather high level for more than ten years (has spent more than SSO miltdon om tt), and it is natural for a mew director, of even an old omer to ask, 'What have we gotten cut of it in terms of improvements in national defersse?!, (Supermodern punctuation convention rigkt therel)] Unfortunately, most people who are asked that auvestion answer 'T dontt know! or evem 'nothing’, IPTO tries to establish that pushdown Viste, Interactive debugging im source language, and even a big part of time sharing eame out of AI and that AI systems such as Dendrals Mycinre and Macsyma actually do have expert#human=level capabilities or (im some areas) betters but there is in fact a bia quif between the perceptual sets of AI buffs and Nod administrators, and the latter peally mean, when they ask about the payoff, where are p SFEIGENBAUM>LICK, 91 WED 2=APRe75 12:44PM the intelligent weapon systems? They would understand intelligent BUPPOFRtT syStems, BUt weapon syBStems dominate support systems in the prevalling psyehological spacer and even the Secretary of Defense has to work at it to get his people to realize that more is spent on operations and maintenance than om personne! and more on personnel than Om PPocUremMent, In any events this perceived lack of specific payoff from $50 million is a major source of dissonance, Needless to say, we have al} been working hard to accomplish two thingst $, To educate the new Director into a stronger appreciation of truly advanced technology and into a realization that the future {8 mot to be wom by making a lot of minor technological advances and moving them immediately into the Services, We point to time sharing and interactive computing, syatems !(ke DENDRAL and MACSYMA, languages like LISP, the ARPANET, highly realistic graphics with brightness gradations, color, and kinematics, and other such exemplars of real advances that have already been made and have had major effects, We poimt to the Big advances that are now in the offing == about which more later, 2, To improve the commections between IPTO programs and the DoD offices that ought to kmow about thet, acprectate them, Say good things about them, and be ready te take over and apply their applicable outputs, There is mo doubt that IPTO {8 Cand always has been) weak im respect of that kind of eonmmection with the Deoartment of which it is a part, During the time he was im DDR&E, George Heilmeier evidently heard a lot of criticism of ARPA, and of IPTO im particulars from the various DoD offices, and maw he is determined to do something about it, The fact (8, we in IPTO were working very hard te de something about itr but mow we are under atrong Directoral pressure to accelerate the movement, Many of my remarks at the recent PI Conference were related te what I am telling you mow, but I meam what I say here to be a strenger statement of the problem and an assertion that the problem js deeper than I then realized, During the time since George Helimeier arriveds we have taken advantage of every opportunity to brief him and diseuss programs with him, He has given us a lot of time and participated actively in the discussions, He {is beight and energetic; there is ho Problem about getting his attention, The problem is that the fpame of reference with which he enters the discussions is basically quite different ¢rom the frames of reference that are maturals comfortable, and familiar to mest of us im IPTO == and, J thinks, to mest of you, Im my frame #* of in our frames == it is a fundamental axiom that computers and caommunications are crucially important, that getting computers to understand natural Vamguage afd to respond te speech will have profound consequences for the mitttary, that the ARPANET and satellite macket communications and ground and air radio networks are major steos forward into a new era of command and control, that AI techniques wil! make it possible to interpret satellite photographs automatically, and p LICK 91 WED 2eAPRe75 120044PM that 10t10"bit nanosec memories and 10Ti2@bit microsecond memories and 107iS=bit millisecond memories are more desirable than gold, In George's frame, and to a greater or lesser (I think the Jatter) axtent also in Ajex Tachmindji's frame, none of those things js axfomatic e= and the basic question is, who im DoD needs it and is willing to put up some money om it mow? We are trying hard to decrease the dissonance between the frames, but we are mot making good progress, As one of my colleagues put it Freidaye 'I thimk we are stowly holding our own with George!, , A llttle over a week ago, we had our !Apportionment Review! in which adjustments to FY 76 funding levels were diseussed, We have not heard yet exactly what the front officets conclusions were op will be Cthough we have been interactiong on the question); we expect to have a written statement om Tuesday, along with the other ARPA offices, My expectation ia that there will be major deferrals (mn all our beste researeh programs, But we shel! know more definitely very scons so I!1] mot speculate further on that subject, The important thing wil} be not so much the size of the deferrals as whether they are defined a8 hedges against Congressional furd eutting (Such deferrals are necessary because we do not yet know what the action of the Congressional! committees will be.) of as diversions of funds from basic research Cor even exploratory development projects that de not have definite technologyetransien routes established) into definite applications, As I mentioned at the PI Conferences the concept of "Silver Bullets! (8 important {nm ARPA, im George Hellmeier's view of what ARPA should accomplish, One of his main aliver=bullet areas {eo underwater sound and seners and IPTO ie in the process of buying inf on the HASP Project (Ed Feigenbaum's AI approach), Another is maintenance of vehicles with the ald of sensors and indicators that Predict needs far maintenancer and we are trying to establiah the fact that computers necessarily must play a central role in maintenance diagnosis and prognosis, A third silverebullet area is Software Technology == an alleout effort to solve DoD!s software problem(s), (This $s an IPTO arear and we are working hard to formulate it, George wants to get the Services and the software houses {nto the effort, as do It, since I have embraced the basic goa) of this and see the Services and the companies that do DoeDis software work es essentially the targets (and we need to have the targets working with and for us), An issue i. ST is the degree to which AP can be kept in the Program as the main hope ef achieving a realty fundamental solution, An {mporptant staffer on an important Congressional Committee seems (still) to be set against AP and even against ST, and al) the other Powers that be seem to be constitutionally against anything that won't get finished while they are stil! in their present Jobs, . At presents George's Jist of important things IPTO can do for Ded fat Get computers to read Morse Code in the presence of other code and noise, Get computers to identify/detect key words in a stream of speech, Ne LICK. 94 WED 2" APR75 12844PM Developm speechwunderstanding systems (i there really is a clear use for them in the miViteryds (Tris {8 a major come=about during the last few days, Farlier, he was very cool toward SUS,]} Solve DoDts "Software Probliem', Make @ Peal contribution te Command and Control, {George is mot fully convinced about packet communications, vet, but he thinks we May Rave something in there somewhere, ) Help the Tactical Teehmology Office do a good thing {mn somar, tend of list} Sadiv, that list does not include some of the main items that are om mine, [te is too late om Easter evening to give my full 'dst, but here ia one item from each of our seven programs! Intelligent Svstems Develop a system that will guide mot=sufficientiy= trained maintenance men through the maintenance of complex equioment, Advanced Memory Technology Learn how to handie very large, distributed, redundant databases, Image Understanding Develop automatic photointerpretation, Climate Dynamics Develop the basis in modeling and array computina for evaluation of effects of major human projects/activities om climate, (as you know, ARPA {8 transferring this one to NSF w= but what I listed is more or less accomplished,) Software Technology Take the excessive cost, delays and error out of software development and maintenance, Speech Pracessing Make it possible for people to communicate with eoemputers in naturals continuous soeech, ? ? [Let me list a second item here,!) Achieve good=quality, matural, feeognizable speech with 500 to 3000 bits mer second (through commpression) so {tt can be made secure for Ded communtcation #= and also master the handling of p «FEIGENBAUMPLICK, 31 WED 2eAPR@75 {2144PM Speech in packet communication networks, Integrated Ct3 Systems Provide am integratedr coherent, secure, effective computer= eommumiecation base af Command and Control) w= 1,e@e, am ARPANET@like system with additional media (satellites: ground radio, alrperaft padio), security, message services, database services, and so ony with the emphasis om tntegration/coherence, fend of list] What are we going to do about all this? Here in IPTO we are going to continue our {mteraction with George and get off to a strong start with the new Deputy Director whe will be coming on board in a couple of weeks, We are aqoimg to try te sell them our view of the world, but we are going to be moving closer to their views, surety, im the process, We will be pressing om you in ways not matural to my philosophy == not to get you te do research you de nat wart to do or to make compromises you do mot wamt to make, but to get vou to see the picture clearly as it is seen from here so you cam make wise and correct decisions, And we will be asking YOUr 88 SCOP a& we can aprpange its te come im and meet and try to influence the new Director and Deputy Director, Meanwhile, we are open to advice and counsel! == indeed» need it and will appreciate it greatly, Om the positive sider Jet me say that a lot of the offices in Ded and elSwhere in the government have by now heard of IPTO and are impppressed with the technology the IPTO Community has created, There {8s some real support out there im the technical offices of DoD, Also on the positive side, let me say that the IPTO Program Managers have been doing a marvelous Job, Their performance om the second day of the Apportionment Review was superb, and George Heiimeter realized he had really been im a session (and he acknowledged fe), Om the negative side, the fact is that we are not making as much progress a2 IT think necessary, and the timing in pelation to my own Plans {8 very poor, As most of you kmow, I have beer thinking im terms of going back to MIT in September, ands, unlesse I can get a strong candidate=syuccessor hefore the new Director, I am afraid he might take the occasion of my leaving to put a strongly applicationseoriented person into the Job, My Peporting om the problem at this time is mot intended to sound a general quarters alarm} it 4s te make sure that you are aware that 9 serious problem exists {nm ARPA*IPTO and demands profound consideration by all ef you, Piease share this information with those im your organizations whe should ponder the matter amd will respect its sensitivity, and please eal! me to discuss amy cr all asrects of it, If!) keep you imfermed as the situation develops, {Time Lapse, Now it is Tuesday Morning,) Yesterday afternoon, Dave Russel! and I spent another hour and a half with Heilmeier and Tachmindji, AS a result, my perception y LICK, 34 WED 2eAPR#75 12244PM of the situation is a bit more definite, I!!! add a few paracraphs to Sunday's message (which ¥ deeided to hold unti) after the Monday meeting) and send it off to you, Tre 'directoral guidance! re Intelligent Systems is mow Quite specific in these respects: ARPA does mot want to continue to fund the tleld im an opensended streammotwresearch ways it wants to redirect most of the AI research it is funding in such a way as to test or measure the present capability of the field to Serve rea! DoD application needs, amd it would tike to see the support of basic research im AI either taken ever by am agency such as NSF Ore at least, shared more equitably than it {is now, The transition will be handied imsofar as possibile to avoid damage to the field, but the transition wil} be made. Im some (matances, contracts in the TS arear or largely in the IS area, wil! be extended on a shorpteterm (aeGer 6 MO.) basis while redirection takes place, Dave and I are directed to discuss with other agencies the assumotion, am their part, of a larger share of the over=all support of the field, For the time being, the overwal! IPTO IS budget is not to be Peduceds but it {s necessary that the same funding level mow cover some application efforts, Definite allocations of funds within the IS budget have mot been directed, but it (s clear that George is determined to bring about the shift to application and will direct definite allocations if he is not satistied with IPTO!s Proaress in effecting the desired change in direction, The Imtelligent Terminals subwmarea of IS, which is a mew Subtarear Planned to be funded in FY 76s is mot touched by the direction Just mentioned, and its funds are mot part of the basics Piustapplied total that 4s supposed to be the same in FY 76 as in FY 75, The IT program has been planned in such a way that its application and techmology=transfer aspects are clear and definite, so it does not come under the pressure to shift from basic to applied, Im Image Understandings the direction is less definite, but the pressure {8 strong to achieve actual applications of results in image coding, image enhancememt, and image restoration, and the sense is that IPTO will have to determine and make the case for the plausibility of a program in image imterpretation (alias, extraction oF information spom images, alias 'image understanding! im analogy with !speech understanding!) before actually setting out on an Image Understanding program, Again, the cost of application and technologyetransfer work wil] have to come out of a total budaet that {s mot greater than last year's, The third basierresearch area (the third of the three IPTO Computer and Communication Sefences subelements) (s Advanced Memory Technology, It is almost wholly new im FY 76 and so does not come under the same kind af redirectiona| pressure as IS amd IU, The Very Large Database Systems part of AMT is set up with strong attention to application and teehnology transfer, The Advanced Memory Concepts part has been planned as a aquite=far-aut program and therefore wil) have philosophical problems that may translate themselves into funding problems, but it fs too early to tell Just what will happen, Tre AMC Program Planning Committee (Berlekamo Commitee) is going to brief Hellmeier and others om (tentatively) Apri! 17, and the situation will begin to clarify itself then, LICK, 91 WED 2°APR@75 12:40PM Finally Cim this report of what I learned yesterday and how it Shaped my perception of what {8 going on), the feedoack from ovr Apportionment Review is gaing to slip a bit, amd IT will net know today Cas IT thimk IT indicated I would) exactly what the !reapportionment guidance! is, From what I have saids you can see clearly, I think, that we afe at a watershed im the histary of ARPA*IPTO, Although the Pedirection is not wholly, of even to any large extent, im accord with my own Philosophy of rPeseareh Support, it wil! at Jeast remove or Peduce the dissonance that has long characterized the relation of the IPTO progrpam to the DoD organizations that are Supposed to use the results of ITPTOesupported R&D, At the same time, {t will fmtroduce dissonance into the relation between IPTO and its besiceresearch contractors, I am deeply concerned about my owm pole im the Pedirection == whether to fight it, try to contain ity or join (t wholeheartedly amd try to steer it in such a way as to wind up with a larger, stromgers, more productive enterprise, I have been about half way between the first two alternatives, but meither the haif=wavebetween Point mor either of the first two is Peally a workable position within ARPA, It has to be either leave and fight or stay amd join == and it is clear that to adopt the former course orecipiteusly would have a very bad effect om the program, And it {$8 Such an (mportant =*9 im many ways, absolutely crucial == programl . One ef the next steps is te get the IS PIs to come here to talk with George Hellmeier and Dem Looft (whe is the naw Deputy Director, Just now coming om board), I!')1 be contacting some of you about that im the mear future, Meanwhiler please let me hear from you, I need your counsel and help, (Another time lapse, Now (t {8 Wednesday morning,) Let me end this message with a proposal! what the pesponse of IPTO amd the contractor community should be to the sityation I have described, f am syre the situation is real, I am mot Just in a temporarily gloomy state, I have smoothed quite a bits, held back on composing such a piece as this for some time, not wanting to be an alarmist, Indeed, I would much rather talk with each of you personally about the situation »= face to face of on the phone, so ! could react to your individual responses im real time, (1 realize that the written word {s mo proper medium for this kind of communications, but there {a not time for so many individual interactions, and I think I should get on with this,) Here is the proposal to which I invite your reactions IPTO should oreceed premptiy but deliberatiyy to construct a new modus operand! that will provide a mew basis for very significant advances im computer and communications sciences, together with their application te improve U.S, defense, during the mext tem years, The mew game will wholeheartedly embrace the goal of bringing about applications of mew technology, It will continue the present devotion to major sciemtific and technological advamces (amd not devote much time orp money to merely imcremental improvements), but it py LICK, 31 WED 2eAPR#=75 12144PM Wil! devote a much larger fraction of its resources to moving the advances (nto use, It will mote over a long periods be a zero=sum game, (For a time, until it proves itself, it will have to operate with a Vevel or declining budget,) It will take advantage Of every demonstrated success to increase both the basic PeSeareh amd the application budgets, Byt most of the growth wil) be in the area of present jack, im computer and communication engineering and apptiications, and there will be a significant shift in the center of gravity of the contractor community, The shift will give the university research groups an engineering arm » a marketplace, customers, users, Several ‘industrial! contractors and severa) Service laboratories will be brought into the commumity, and maybe ome oF two more of the FCRC8, (The Lincoln Laboratory is the only ‘Federally Conmtroltied Research Center! in the IPTO contractor community im a major way.) Interaction between the university research groups and the engineering and application parts of the community will be real and strong, The university people will learn more about possible DoD applications, amd there wil! be less basis for the belief (which exists in some Quarters) that there is an active shunning of research vehicles that might appear te be related te DeD applications, The interaction will strengthen the basic work because there wil! be more feeback from real tests of the new ideas and because every star meeds am audience and performs best before a big and enthusiastic one, Mareover, ideas will really start to move into W8Se, The presently vast gulf between how software {8 created in some of the IPTO#sponsored laboratories and how it {8 created im the shops that produce Ded's software will marrow, It will take three years instead of thirty for spaghetti stacks to get from LISP toe COBOL, Im shorts IPTO should correct the oresent imbalance, should build ue an engineering and applications wing to make the contractor community Strong and capable of meeting the challenges that are not mow being met well, This will remove the dissonance that is causing the Present trouble and wil} tuepm grumbling into appreciation, In the process, it will do a very good thing for the basic science, which cannot really get along playing so much to itsel?# as it now Callegediy amd probably actually) is, That {8 Just a Pough first cut and deals with objectives more than with how to achieve them, but it seems best to propose something for discussion pather than Just to ask you to ponder the situation, Please Jet me have your reactions SOOM, Regards Liek