February 2, 1971

Dr. Carl 0. Muehlhauge
U.S. Department of Commerce
National Bureau of Standerds
Washington D.C. 20234

Dear Dr. Muehlhause

Thank you for your letter of January 25th. I would indeed be
interested in more details about the value distribution studies
mentioned in your letter and in particular the work by Professor Lave
on automotive safety, My intereat in the latter dates back to 1955
when I joined « group in the state of Wisconsin to implement obligatory
seat belts (this was after a graduate student who. I hed predicted
would have a brilliant cereer. was partially decerebrated in an accident
in which several other occupants of the car were left unscratched).

I would concur in the importance in developing value distributions
but not without some crepitations about potential errors end abuses.
These adverse possibilities are shared by most system studies that
depend on neceasargly oversimplified models of the real world, and I
em sure I need not dvell upon them, Let me stress, however, that the
present “market" for safety is very far from rational as already
illustrated by the dispersion of life values mentioned in your letter.
The main purpose of such value distribution studies should be to
point out glaring inconsistencies in our approaches to policy. For
this purpose relative evaluations are elmost as useful as absolute
ones; the latter are in grave danger of being abused, i.e., when
conclusions drawn from safety analysis are uncritically assimilated
into other aspects of ecenomic policy.

On the other hand, we waste wich energy in social division and
squander many resources by failing to recognize where cost-effectiveness
lies in our pursuit of safety. (And, of course, one must say much of
the same for health end for many other values. )

Se, I would be very mich in favor of extending social research
along these lines, but I would also emphasize these cautions. When
consumers are wore often then not quite unable to make rational
choices we should net use their behavior es a justification for the
existing price system, (You will recognize in this remark the thread
of my criticism of Chauncy Stear's efforta. I would, in fact, be such
interested if you know of the other critical studies of bis work,

Sincereiy yours,

Jeshua Lederberg
Professor of Genetics
over

 

ert TAME
Dr. Carl 0. Muehlhause =-2- 2/2/71

P.S. Somewhere in this study we have to include a place for the
paradoxical value affirmatively placed en risk - you might say
the death instinct that many people exhibit! I do not think

one should necessarily equate the value of the thrill function with

@ negative valuation on human life although this would be a logical

consequence of a simple analysis.

JL/rr