Fred Kaplan
[stamped, SEP -- 5 1985]
Wizards of Armageddon
First -- may I take the occasion to thank you for a most useful and provocative work of historical scholarship.
Then -- Can you help me on a detail.
I have long been intrigued by the motives that led to the Cuban missile crisis. One key would be that Gilpatric's speech of 10/21/61 was calling Khrushchev's bluff even more than we realized: viz that Soviet ICBM capability was close to zero. In that context, IRBM's in Cuba would greatly add to the Soviet's deterrence.
For that reason, your recitation of the 1960-1961 NIE's and SNIE's was of very great interest; and I have just now read the 6/61 estimate with
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great fascination.
I have not however been able to identify or locate the 9/6/61 SNIE to which you refer, (and therefore not the codeword annex that imputes just 4 SS-6's.) I have no problem with access; so it would be very helpful to me if you could identify this document in more precise detail.
If so, I would appreciate that very much.
Sincerely,
Joshua Lederberg