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3-17-64
STANFORD UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER

STANFORD, CALIFORNIA 94305 e (415) 321-1200

 

 

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STANFORD University SCHOOL OF MEDICINE JUL 10 1969
Depertment of Genetics

Professor Joshua Lederberg

VD Statistics Program
CDC - Public Health. Service
Atlanta Ga. 30333

I would be grateful to you
for further information on:

VD Fact Sheet 1968: Derivation of the estimated number of untreated,
infectious cases of syphilis:

Cases of primary and secondary syphilis are reportable by law in all of the 50 States and
the District of Columbia. In the fiscal year ending June 30, 1968, physicians and clinics in the
United States reported 20,182 cases to State or local departments of health, But the number of
cases reported understates actual incidence for two reasons:

| 1. Not all cases are diagnosed, and | (vo sak gyre )

2. Not all diagnosed cases are reported.

Leee
Y The Venereal Disease Program currently estimates that the actual occurrenceof syphilis

was about 80,000 cases in Fiscal Year 1968 of which 20,182 were diagnosed and reported to
health departments.

Cases of syphilis which occur but go untreated cumulate to form a large reservoir of
cases needing treatment. This reservoir of cases needing treatment (prevalence), most of
which are in the latent stage of disease and are detectable only by means of bloodtests, is
currently estimated to number about 636,000.

*¢ 8 #

Since writing the attached article, I have become increasingly perplxed
about efforts to define the problem to better than an order of magnitude.

Do you have a mathematical model, with best estimates of the distributions,
of exposures, infections, and transitions through: infective states, therapy and
latent states? (Are untreated cases likely to have more further contacts
than the norm, etc.)

Thank you
° hua Lederberg

My interest in this material relates
in part to background for a weekly
column on "Science and Man" which ap-
pears weekly in the Washington POST.