a fa. IG_

Pros and Cons of BWC. Thoughts of 4/18/00
{cf letter to N.A. Sims}

If we had Hopes, they surely are disappointed.
Nevertheless we are much further ahead with the BWC than without.

1) Most important: Sans BWC, the world might see an all out legitimized
technology race for BW development.

Worst would have been our own high tech impetus to that development.
a) catalyzing competitive reactions

b) energizing the most sophisticated new technology that eventually spreads

2) Our security does not depend on our having BW -- no parallel with nuclear.
It depends on denying it to others.

3) The BWC dampens and complicates others’ effort even if it does not abolish them.

4) The BWC legitimates every other step we can take, as problematic as that
enforcement has become.

Enforcement, not verification, is the chief obstacle, and that will only
be bolstered by a strong "moral" position.

Joshua Lederberg