SEP 21 1009

e e
Department of Epidemiology
Yale University Deparinent of Es
School of Medicine
60 College Street

P.O. Box 208034
New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8034

Dear Joshua,

I think probably your reference for the citation of CEA Winslow’s book is the
correct one, but to say that he said that "the war is over" seems to be taking
his message farther than intended.

There are several copies of his book in different editions at different
libraries on the Yale campus. I have checked out a "facsimile" of the original
1943 edition in our Public Health Library. Both the title and content give a
clear impression that he thought this was the time to summarize the conquest of
infectious disease. He lists a number of nagging questions concerning the
microbial theory of disease: the existence of inapparent cases, the failure of
some exposed to become infected, and the role of insect vectors in providing a
hidden link between cases, and describes how all have been resolved.

However, he tangentially acknowledges that the war was still to be won. He
mentions the potential of antibiotics. He gives data that the average decline
in mortality for several infectious disease in the U.S. was 82% in the first
third of this century, but that leaves 18% (1935 data, the most recent
presented). It is basically a description of historical sources on the triumph
of microbial over miasmal theories of infectious disease.

I do remember Winslow when I first came to Yale. He died in 1957. There were
two Williamses here in the 60’s or 70’s, Allan and Carol, but they were both
young at the time and I don’t think either would have been so quoted. It is
entirely possible that there was another Williams here in the forties, but I have
no recollection of such a person in the 50’s when I came.

IT hope this helps,

Y a
ours Lip h

Francis L Black