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212  Dramatic Results Unlikely From Replacing Phosphates
     The Washington Post  June 6, 1970

     The life of civilization in the world is measured by the reserves
of rock phosphate available to make up the unavoidable yearly losses
caused by civilized life."

     "The removal of phosphorus from the soils of the U.S. by harvested
crops, grazing, erosion and leaching greatly exceeds the addition
of phosphorus to the soil.  The necessity for wider use of phosphates
and the conservation of our supplies of phosphates for future 
generations is, therefore, a matter of great public concern."

     These remarks have all the flavor of contemporary pessimisms.
They are, however, taken from the annual report of the Tennessee Valley
Authority for 1937 and from a message to Congress by President
Franklin D. Roosevelt on May 20, 1938.

     Phosphates are again in the news, though not as a vindication of
those gloomy prophecies.  On the contrary, we now suffer from the
overabundance and overuse of phosphates, the heavy fertilization of
lakes and streams and the cycle of algal growth and putrefaction
symbolized by Lake Erie and styled "eutrophication."

     FDR in 1938 was only half wrong.  The United States is actually
blessed with ample reserves of this vital mineral so that our exports
of fertilizer phosphates are among the most important real values that
we contribute to the world economy.

     However, the industrial processes developed by the TVA under
FDR's special encouragement have helped to make phosphates more
cheaply available for industrial and agricultural uses.  Even this
accelerated consumption would not exhaust known reserves for hundreds
of years, and as soon as these become elusive, we can look to billions
of tons already located in offshore deposits on the continental 
shelves.

     Cheap phosphates, although solving one problem for "the life of
civilization," have generated others as a by-product of wasteful use.
The low cost of mineral fertilizers destroys the economic base for
reclaiming organic fertilizers from sewage, which is then poured into
the nearest available waters.  Furthermore, the use of phosphates in
detergents doubles the contribution of urban sewage to the phosphate 
input to the lakes.

     A comprehensive solution to this problem would be a radical re-
structuring of our systems of waste disposal and the manuring of farm
lands.  We could establish standards of "tertiary" treatment that
would discharge sewage carrying only a negligible residue of polluting
wastes.  These systems entail heavy costs that we would all have
to share, although we could surely find ways of taxing identifiable
polluters for their special burdens on the system.

     The detergent phosphates, however, are such a conspicuous 
contribution to one element of water pollution that there is a certain
logic and the fewest political penalties in focusing on them as a
discrete evil whose removal would be relatively painless.  There is
still the grave danger that some substitutes, for example the NTA now
being introduced, might generate even more serious problems beyond our
present comprehension.

     We can also ask whether the replacement of phosphates in detergents
will do any perceptible good in saving the lakes.  This is a
very complicated question about which competent scientists honestly
disagree.

     Let it be clear: there is no dispute that phosphates are one of
the essential inputs to the eutrophication process.  The question is
whether other sources of phosphate in sewage  and runoff do not 
already contribute more than enough for algal growth.  When phosphate is
already superabundant, nitrates, other minerals or organic carbon will
determine the extent of noxious growth.

     These  questions will not be answered by adversary proceedings
where witnesses contend to extract conclusions from a hopelessly 
inadequate data base.  They can be answered, at least in part, by 
further objective studies in the laboratory and the field.

     My own speculation is that the public will be disappointed in all
but a few areas if it expects any dramatic environmental improvement
to follow from the replacement of phosphates.  If this were coupled
with stringent management of other phosphate sources, we could be more
optimistic.  My fear is of diversion or a backlash of concern that
will prevent our getting under way with really effective, but costly,
methods of total management of our wastes.
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