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203  U.S. Population Growth Could Be Made Bearable
     The Washington Post  April 4, 1970

     "There is currently some tendency to blame on the population
explosion all of our social and environmental ills ... This is an
unrealistic and all too simple explanation.  Most of these problems
have their origins in other social, economic and political factors and
from the excessive concentration of our existing population in 
metropolitan areas.  But there is no doubt that most or all of our 
national ills are seriously exacerbated by a rapidly expanding
population."

     So said Dr. J. George Harrar, president of the Rockefeller 
Foundation, in testimony before a House subcommittee on the "Effects of
Population Growth on Natural Resources and the Environment."

     This overview of the U.S. population problem I readily second.
Neither Dr. Harrar nor myself would minimize the crushing economic
burden of a 25-year population doubling time on the poor countries of
the world.  But we cannot compare that problem with our 70-year 
doubling time in the context of our own economy.  If we were ready and
well able to cope with our obvious needs for social and environmental
rehabilitation, our population growth would be a small additional 
burden.  To the extent that we are not, however, population increase can
only aggravate our difficulties.

     The stripping of our forests and the depletion of our mineral re-
sources are among the problems said to be closely connected with our
population growth.  In fact the instant problem is how to provide for
an existing world population.  To match the consumption patterns of
the United States--and we have far from saturated what we regard as
our own needs for housing and other durables--would require a nearly
tenfold increase in mining the world's resources.

     That would have to be redoubled for a decade to match our above-
ground stockpiles in existing buildings, rolling stock, industrial
plant and so forth.  Known reserves of iron ore and fossil fuels might
barely meet such requirements, but the reserves of most other metals
are hopelessly inadequate for any such  sudden increase of demand.
Mercury and silver are already in critical supply for the existing
industrial economy, and the 20-year outlook for uranium, nickel, tin,
lead and zinc is at least questionable.

     U.S. population growth does not, however, bear heavily on this
question.  Our growth in mineral use per capital runs about 2 per cent
per year; it presses twice as hard as the population increase itself.
The underlying question is whether the free enterprise price system
can react promptly and correctly enough to our real resource needs.

     From many standpoints, the poor countries now suffer from an 
apparent glut of primary commodities through the depression of prices
to levels that hinder their economic development.  Mineral values make
up hardly more than one per cent of our own GNP.  We might withstand a
gradual adjustment of their prices by as much as 10 times without
enormous deprivation--though necessarily with quite some effect on
competition between industries.

     During the past decade, the depletion of silver and mercury has
caused a price increase of two to threefold.  This has already resulted
in strenuous efforts to conserve and recycle these metals.  Their 
properties are too special to encourage much direct substitution in
applications like silver in conventional photography.  But the short-
ages  have impelled strenuous efforts to find new approaches -- with
some successes, like xerographic copy making.

     Competitive pressures for minerals from a developing world may
end up with the paradoxical benefit of making us recycle our waste and
reclaim our junked cars under simple economic pressure.  It is important
that we encourage the technological advances that can lead to a
more efficient use and reuse of our resources.

     It is equally important that we do not permit the pressure of
shrinking reserves to justify economic distortions in the name of
parochial sufficiency, or the fundamentally uneconomic wastage of the
whole environment in the name of "Cheap" extraction of minerals.
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