IMMIGRATION INTO THE UNITED STATES. EDWARD JARVIS, M. D. Reprinted from The Atlantic Monthly for April, 1872. BOSTON JAMES R. OSGOOD AND COiVj/ANY, Late Ticknor & Fields, and Fields, Osgood, & Co. 18 72. IMMIGRATION INTO THE UNITED STATES. EDWARD JARVIS, M. D. Reprinted from The Atlantic Monthly for April, 1872. BOSTON; JAMES R. OSGOOD AND COMPANY, Late Ticknor & Fields, and Fields, Osgood, & Co. 1872. Entered according to Act of Congress, in the year 1872, JAMES R. OSGOOD AND COMPANY, in the Office of the Librarian of Congress, at Washington. University Press : Welch, Bigelow, & Co., Cambridge. IMMIGRATION. THERE is a belief held by a few in both Europe and America, that the climate of the United States is unfavorable to the Caucasian constitu- tion. This is put forth distinctly by Mr. Clibborne, in a paper which he read before the British Association for the Advancement of Science at Chel- tenham, in 1856, entitled “ The Tenden- cy of the European Races to become extinct in the United States.” This was published in the volume of Trans- actions of the society for that year. while all the rest of the growth of pop- ulation within that period is due to new immigrants and their very fruitful families. Mr. Frederic Kapp, in an address read before the American Social Science Association and printed in their Jour- nal for 1870, warmly supports this doc- trine, and says that “it is the great merit of Mr. Schade to have first ap- plied the true principle of computing the gain of population.” * The sum of Mr. Clibborne’s idea is embraced in the following sentence : “ From the general unfitness of the climate to the European constitution, coupled with the occasional pestilen- tial visitations which occur in the healthier localities, on the whole, on an average of three or four generations, extinction of the European races in North America would be almost cer- tain, if the communication with Europe w’ere entirely cut off.” Knox repeats this opinion in his English lectures on the races of men.* M. A. Carlier, a French traveller in this country, and writer, in his Me- moir e stir PAcclimatement des Races en Amerique, read before the Societe d’Anthropologie, of Paris, and printed in their Transaction's, endeavors to sus- tain the same doctrine of the decadenca of population in America, and quotes Mr. Schade in proof of his opinion. In harmony with these views, are some seemingly wild opinions as to the number of people of foreign birth living now in the United States. The Bishop of Cassel said in the House of Lords, of Great Britain, “ There are seven million natives of Ireland in the United States.” A speaker in a pub- lic meeting of Germans in New York said, “We have four millions of our countrymen here.” Disraeli, in “ Lo- thair,” makes Monsignore Berwick, who is represented as a man of rare intelli- gence, say, “We have twelve million Catholics in the United States.” The existence and rapid increase of the large population in the United States are held not to conflict with this theory, for these facts are explained by the supposition that our people are composed mostly of strangers from abroad and their children, whose fami- lies are extraordinarily fertile in the first generation in America, although they soon become sterile, and in course of a century or less,yield their places to new arrivals, as their predecessors had done for ages before them, and as their successors will do forever after them. To meet these opinions and to de- termine, as far as the attainable rec- ords will permit, exactly or approxi- mately, the numbers of these foreign- ers and their descendants living in the United States, in the several decen- nial years of this century, 1800 to 1870, is the purpose of this article. Mr. Louis Schade, in his work pub- lished at Washington, in 1856, affirms this principle of American deteriora- tion of human life, and says that the power of natural increase of those who were hereeighty-twoyears ago is reduced to the annual rate of 1.38 per cent, Immigration into the United States. No organized system of ascertaining and recording the number and charac- * Page 57. * Page 16. 2 Immigration. ter of the persons who came here from abroad existed previous to October i, 1819. From that time the law of Congress required that all who come to the sea and lake ports should be registered at the custom-houses. Their names, ages, sex, nativity, occupation, and destination are ascertained and re- ported to the national government. Scotia and New Brunswick for 1851 and 1861, show the numbers of foreign- ers that were then living in the British North American Provinces. The Brit- ish emigration reports show the num- bers that left the United Kingdom for these colonies in the intervals of those enumerations. Calculating the mortal- ity of these emigrants at the usual an- nual rate, we have the numbers of their probable survivors in the several years of the census. Comparing these sur- viving immigrants with the Europeans living in the Provinces, in 1842, 1851, and 1861, the last were found insuffi- cient to account for the first. Since the law went into operation, in 1819, the State Department at first, and the Treasury Department latterly, have published annual reports of the number and character of the immi- grants. So far as these documents go, they may be received with confidence. But there were manifest omissions at some ports in the earlier years, and they could give no account of foreign- ers who entered this country through other channels than the sea and lake ports. The survivors of those who left the United Kingdom for the British North American colonies exceeded the num- bers of Europeans living there Previous to 1842 by 110,518 Interval between 1842 and 1851 by . . 75,245 Interval between 1851 and 1861 by • . 9,°53 No official account has been given of the arrivals, before October 1, 1819. Some statistical writers, however, made careful inquiries and estimated the ex- tent of .immigration. Mr. Blodgett thought the arrivals did not exceed four thousand 4 year, from 1789 to 1794. Dr. Seybert supposed there were six thousand a year, from 1790 to 1810.* Professor Tucker fixed the number at fifty thousand in the period 1790 to 1800, seventy thousand from 1800 to 1810, one hundred and fourteen thou- sand from 1810 to 1820, and two hun- dred thousand from 1820 to 1830.! The Professor’s estimates are now admitted as correct by the best authorities. 194,816 All others had either died or were ab- sorbed into the provincial populations. No account is given of these 194,816. Some of them may have returned to Europe. Probably most of them came across our border, and thus swelled our foreign population. Immigration of British Provincials. The number of natives of British Provinces, recorded in our immigration reports, do not account for all that ap- pear in our censuses of 1850 and iB6O. The custom-houses do not reach those who come directly by land. In the census of 1850 there are 100,692 Brit- ish Provincials more than could be ac- counted for by the previous immigrant records. Besides the survivors of these in iB6O, there were found by the enu- merators of that year 72,286 more than had been officially reported. The last came between 1850 and iB6O. The other 100,692 came previous to 1850, and probably arrived in periods similar to those in which other Provincials came by sea and by lake, and were registered in the custom-houses. European Immigration through the British Provinces. There is no difficulty in determining the number who landed at our sea-ports and the lake-ports since October 1, 1819. But the doubtful problem is the num- ber who came across the border, from and through Canada and New Bruns- wick, and escaped the notice of our national officers. The censuses of Canada for 1842, 1851, and 1861, and those of Nova * Statistical Annals, p. 29. t Progress of Population, Chap. X. Those found living in 1850 and iB6O Immigration. are the survivors of larger numbers, who had arrived in previous years. The actual arrivals include not only those living in 1850 and iB6O, but also those who died after their passing the border, and before these dates. natives of the United States, and also those who expressed an intention to reside elsewhere, are omitted, and 16,327 are added to the arrivals of 1820 to 1830, to compensate for the apparent deficiencies in some of the custom-house returns. These, with the 31,987 presumed to have come across the border, added to the sea-port and lake-port arrivals, make 200,000, the estimate of Professor Tucker. Then the 100,692 British Provincials living in the United States in 1850 were the survivors of 5,325 who arrived between 1820 and 1830 26,623 11 “ l< 1830 “ 1840 A total of 117,524 “ “ “ 1820 “ 1850 83,576 “ “ “ 1840 “ 1850 By these means and from these sources, the following probable and certain numbers of foreign immigrants, from 1790 to iB6O, are found : And the 72,286 who were living here in IS6O, in excess of those who sur- vived from 1850, represent 82,487 Pro- vincial immigrants by land across the Period. Immigrants. border between 1850 and iB6O. Thus those natives of Europe and Dec. 31, 1790 to Dec. 31, 1800, . . . 50,000 Jan. 1, 1801 “ “ “ 1810, . . 70,000 “ “ 1811 “ “ “ 1820, . . , 114,000 “ “ 1821 “ “ “ 1830, . • 200,000 “ “ 1831 “ “ “ 1840, . . . 682,112 “ “ 1841 to May 31, 1850, • • 1,711,161 June 1, 1850 “ “ “ IS6O, . . 2,766,495 “ “ iBso “ “ “ 1870, . . 2,424,390 the British Provinces who came from and through Canada and New Bruns- wick unnoticed by the American offi- cers and not included in the immigra- tion reports were : 8,018, In Periods. Provincials. Europeans. Totals. 1815 to 1820 12,157 12,137 1820 to 1830 5,325 26.524 .31,849 1830 to 1840 26,623 56,364 82,987 1840 to 1850 83.576 go.718 176,204 1850 to 1860 82,787 9,053 91,840 1815 to i860 200,31 I 194,8l6 395-127 Number of Foreigners living in each decennial Year. It was desirable to determine the number of foreigners who were living in the United States, at each of the census or decennial years. In order to reach this, the numbers of the survivors of those who arrived in each decade are calculated at the annual rate of 2.4 per cent mortality and .976 per cent surviv- ing, for the periods 1790 to 1850, and 2.625 per cent mortality for the period 1850 to iB6O, and 2.2 per cent mortal- ity for the last decade, iB6O to 1870, with the following results : These should be added, in their re- spective periods, to the numbers of im- migrants given in government reports. For the rest, in this paper, the na- tional records are assumed, except that, when not deducted and when stated, those passengers who were Immigrants arriving in Periods and surviving in Years. Arrive. Surviving in Years. Period. Number. 1800. 1810. 1820. 1830. 1840. 1850. i860. 1870. 1790- 1 Soo 1800 - x8io 1810- 1820 1820 - 1830 1830-1840 1840 - 1850 1850- 1S60 i860 — 1870 50,000 70,000 1 14,000 200,000 682,112 1,711.161 2,766,495 2,424,390 44,282 .34,732 6i,993 27,241 48,623 100,961 21,364 38,137 79,187 177,Mi 16.755 29,912 62, ICQ 6ll,486 1.3,1.35 23,796 49,409 110,518 486,450 1,552,7°9 10,272 !8,237 37,868 84,704 372,829 1,190,036 2,421,944 8,179 14,600 30.31S 67,810 298,499 952.685 1,938,742 2,253,548 1790 - 1870 Census, 8,018,158 44,282 96,72s 176,825 3 iS,;83° 859,202 2,236,217 2,240.535 4,135,890 4,'3N»7S 5,564,378 5,566,546 Error, — 4,218 — 285 — 2,168 4 Immigration. The results of the logarithmic calcu- lations show the approximate numbers of foreigners who were living in the United States in the several decennial years since 1790. They agree very nearly with the census returns of for- eigners in the years 1850, iB6O, and 1870, when they were separately re- ported. They fall short, less than one in 500 in 1850, less than one in 14,000 in iB6O, and less than one in 2,500 in 1870. The actual rates of mortality were a very slight fraction less than the rates herein assumed. These cor- respond very nearly with the rates de- termined and reported in the mortality volume of the eighth census, pages lix and 277. these, in their respective ages, the same rates of mortality that they now have in England, the general rate would be only 1.329 for males, and 1.338 for females. The rates thus assumed for the foreigners here (24, 2.625, and 2.2) are very high, almost double that of England, for persons in the same ages. In these calculations, it is assumed that the immigrants of the first forty years were distributed in equal num- bers over the years of the respective decades of their arrival, and that those who arrived in each year had a chance or hope of living through the remain- ing years of that, their first decade. Thus those who came in 1791 had a chance of living nine and a half years in that decade, to 1800 ; and the arri- vals of 1795 a chance of four and a half years’ life, and the average of the whole, in that decade, was five years. But in the subsequent decades, with the aid of the custom-house records, this average was determined precisely, by multiplying the arrivals of each year by the remaining years of the decade, and dividing the sum of the products by the whole number of arrivals. This gave five years for the ar- rivals, 1820-1830 and 1850-1860, four and a half years for those who came 1830-1840, and four years for those of 1840 - 1850, and four and one third years for the arrivals of the last decade. The numbers of foreigners stated in the censuses of 1850, iB6O, and 1870 are fixed points, beyond which we can- not pass. If we assume that the im- migration was greater, in any of the periods, than is here given, it will be ne- cessary to increase the rate of mortal- ity in order to reduce their numbers to those then determined by enumeration. Rate of Mortality among Immigrants. The rates of death, 2.4 per cent pre- vious to 1850, and 2.625 per cent 1850 to iB6O, and 2.2 per cent iB6O to 1870, are very large. It must be consid- ered that the immigrants include but a small proportion of those in the per- ilous periods of life, the very young and the aged, but they are mostly in the healthy ages, when the rate of mor- tality is very low. Among all the im- migrants, from 1819 to iB6O, there were only 7.9 per cent under five, and 10.2 per cent over forty years old. In a fixed population, as in England, there were 13.3 per cent under five and 24.6 per cent over forty. The decades-are assumed to end on the 31st of December, in 1800, 1810, 1820, 1830, and 1840. But afterward, in order to correspond with the cen- sus, they are assumed to end on the 31st of May. The period 1840 to 1850 is therefore only nine years and five months, all the others are ten years, and all the immigrants that enter on any decade, after that in which they arrived, are assumed to have a chance of living to its end. The rate of mortality for thirty years in England, for all classes and ages, was 2.333 for males and 2.151 for females. But reducing the propor- tions of infants, children, and old peo- ple to those of the immigrants, and increasing the proportions of those who are between ten and forty to those of the immigrants, and allowing Aratural Increase of the A merican and Foreign Element of Population since 1790. On this question there is probably a wider difference than in regard to the Immigration. 5 numbers of the arrivals from abroad. And public opinion is singularly un- settled as to the extent of the foreign element, the numbers of the natives of other countries who have come here since 1790, and of their children and grandchildren born in the United States. and as often tells the reader that he must not believe his table, column, heading, or figures. And as if this were not sufficient, and there were still danger of misleading the people, he, on page xxxix, paragraph second, says, “ The table of births, as is stated in the notes to each State, includes only those who were born in the year and were surviving at the end of it; in other words, it comprises the figures of the column of population under one year of age.” Mr. Schade supposed that the natu- ral increase or excess of births over deaths in the American population was only 1.38 per cent a year ; and all the surplus growth of the white popu- lation was due to the immigrants who came since 1790. Mr. Kapp and M. Carlier indorse Mr. Schade in this opinion. Mr. Schelde's Theory. If Mr. Schade had looked at the law regulating the census of 1850, page xix, or the schedules, page xi, or the explanation of the schedules, page xxii, or the instructions to the marshals in the same volume, he would have seen that the facts of birth were not re- quired by Congress, nor sought by the census department, nor asked by the marshals. Hence there is no ground for the statement or inference as to the number of births in the year 1849 - 50. This theory is founded on Table XVIII. in the Report of the seventh census, “ Statistics of the United States, 1850,” page xli. The table is enti- tled “ Births, Marriages, and Deaths, Dwellings and Families.” This table is repeated in the compendium of the seventh census, page in. Comparing the numbers of births and deaths, Mr. Schade found the excess of the births over the deaths to be equal to 1.38 per cent of the total white and free colored population in 1850, and thence inferred that this was their annual rate of increase. Numbers of Births and Children under one Year not identical. Even supposing that this matter had been required by the law and re- ported by the marshals, the identity of the number of children under one and of the births would have thrown dis- trust over the statement. No allow- ance is made for the deaths in this the most dangerous period of life. All of them had passed through their most perilous months, except those born in May, 1850, and these had passed through the most perilous weeks and days of life. If Mr. Schade had examined this volume a little further, he would have seen that the column headed “ births” did not give these facts, but merely the number of children under one year old living on the first day of June. Moreover, he would have seen a star at the head of the column referring to a note under the table, which says, “The figures include only those who were surviving at the end of the year, and therefore are but approximate.” If he had looked further through this volume, he would have seen that Mr. De Bow, fearing the world would put confidence in this statement of the table which is repeated in regard to each State, also repeats this caveat on every page where this table or any part of it appears, forty-four times in all, The records of the experience of several nations show the number of children that were born in each month and year, and the number that died in each month of their first year. From these it is easy to determine the num- ber and proportion of those born in any definite year who will die before the year ends, and the number and proportion that will then be alive. The clearest of these are the Dutch tables, in the S/atistisch Jaarboek, X. 6 Immigration. and XL, page 82, for the ten years 1850- 1559, showing all the births 1,075,979, and the deaths in each month after birth. Another authority equally valu- able is the monthly statement, in the large volume “ English Life Table,” No. 3, page 91. Incomplete E7inmeration of Children. There is another element of error in this matter, which is equally if not more important. In the preparation of the mortality report of the eighth cen- sus, an attempt was made to obtain some light on the rate of mortality in this country, by comparing the numbers living at each age in 1850 with the numbers of the same persons who, ten years older, were living in iB6O ; as, for example, those under five in 1850 with those between ten and fifteen in iB6O, those between ten and twenty at the first date with those between twenty and thirty at the second, and so on through all ages.* According to the experience of the Netherlands, if 100,000 are born in any year, 13,139 of these will die before the Ist of the next January, and 86,871 will be alive on that day. The Eng- lish statement is more favorable, and shows that of the 100,000 born in the year, only 9,910 will die before its end, and 90,090 will live to enter the next year. The Dutch is the actual experience of a progressive population, where the births exceed the deaths. The Eng- lish calculation excludes this excess, and is carefully reduced to the case of a strictly stationary population, in •which the births and deaths are equal. The first step was to ascertain all the immigrants who had arrived in this in- terval, 1850 to iB6O, and their numbers at each age ; then, by the Life Table, to calculate the number of survivors of the arrivals of each year in their respec- tive ages in iB6O, and deduct these from the numbers of the whites of the same ages, as they appeared in the eighth census. The remainders were the survivors, in the several ages, of those who, ten years younger, were living here, in 1850, and the difference showed the probable loss by death in this period. The American population is even more progressive than the Dutch ; and, including the South, it has probably a higher rate of infant mortality. It will not then go beyond the truth to as- sume the experience of the Nether- lands as the rate in this country, and that 100,000 children born here, with- in a year, were represented by only 86,871 survivors at its end, and, con- versely, 100,000 children under one year old, living on any day, represent and are the survivors of 115,113 births within the year next preceding. If the enumerations had been com- plete at both censuses, 1850 and iB6O, and none had gone out except by death, and none had come in except by birth, the differences would show the exact mortality, and the rate at each age would be easily determined for that decade of years. But at the early ages of all classes there was no apparent loss ; on the contrary, there were some gains. The 2,896,458 whites living, under five old, in 1850, instead of losing any of their numbers by death, in course of the next ten years, accord- ing to the natural and necessary law of mortality, are represented by the eighth census as being 2,939,510 at the ages ten to fifteen, in iB6O, and thus as having gained 43,052. There were similar dis- crepancies in the statements of the colored population of these ages. In Applying these proportions to the numbers of children under one year of age, in the United States, quoted by Mr. Schade, from the census of 1850, we find that the 537.66 i whites were the survivors of 618,917 births, 11,176 free colored “ 12,862 “ 80,607 slaves “ 92>791 “ 629,444 white and colored “ 724i57° “ within the year. At least it was neces- sary, according to the law of mortality, that so many should have been born in the year next preceding June 1, 1850, to leave this reported number alive at that date. * See Eighth Census Mortality volume, p. 285. Immigration. 7 the next period, passing from the ages between five and ten, in 1850, to those between fifteen and twenty, in iB6O, there were also apparent errors, and the case was the same with the ages next beyond. But in the after ages, the representations of the numbers of the living were apparently more correct. In seeking an explanation of these inconsistencies, it is necessary to as- sume, either that the numbers in the earlier ages, in 1850, were too small, or that those in the later ages, in iB6O, were too large. the ages of o to 5 ; 1,000,000 females, at the ages of 10 to 15, are the survivors of 1,193,398, at the ages of o to 5 ; 1,000,000 of both sexes, at the ages of 10 to 15, are the survivors of 1,198,769, at the ages of o to 5. In Mr. Meech’s American Life Ta- ble* for males only, 1,000,000 at 10 to 15 are the survivors of 1,201,728 un- der 5. Taking the English rate, which nearly coincides with our own, the 2,939,51° whites, aged 10 to 15, living in the United States in iB6O, were the survivors and representatives of 3,523,793 children under 5, living in 1850. The 601,647 colored children aged 10 to 15, living in iB6O, were the survivors and representatives of 721,235, under 5, living in 1850. As the census was taken by name, and each person was described and re- corded, it is hardly supposable that any names could have got into the record, unless they were those of persons really existing. But it is not difficult to sup- pose that some, especially infants and children, may have been unknown to, or forgotten by, the informants, or over- looked by the enumerators. By the same Life Table it appears that 1,000,000 children, between the ages of 10 and 15, are the survivors of an annual average of 287,877 births, ten to fifteen years previous ; then the 2,939’51Q whites, aged 10 to 15, who were living June 1, iB6O, represent an average of 846,217, and the 601,647 colored children of the same age liv- ing June I, iB6O, represent an average of 173,200, and the 3,541,157 of both colors, aged 10 to 15 in iB6O, represent 1,019,417 annual births through the; five years next preceding June 1, 1850. Since, in accordance with the law of population and the law of mortality,, there could not be any given number- of boys and girls of the ages 10 to 15,, unless a proportionately larger num- ber had lived ten years, previously at the ages o to 5, and unless these had been preceded by a still larger and due number of births ; 5,097,085 chil- dren— an average of 1,019,417 a year must have been born within the period, June 1, 1845, to May 3j>, 1850, and 4,245,028 of these must have been alive and under five years,old; on the- first day of June, 1850, im order to. meet the usual chances of death and leave the 3.54b157 survivors at the ages, 10 to 15 on the Ist of June, iB6O. As the census of 1850 failed to give trustworthy information as to the num- bers of children at that time, an attempt was made to determine, from the ac- cepted statements of the eighth census, the number of children under five years old in 1850, in accordance with the known number between ten and fifteen years old in iB6O. For this purpose the censuses of other nations, which are taken decen- nially and represent their populations in quinquennial or decennial periods, were examined, and similar comparisons made of the numbers at the successive enumerations. Most of these are af- fected by emigration, and therefore they do not give sufficiently adequate data for a comparison of their popula- tions at different periods. The life tables of different countries were also examined for this end. These tables are exact representa- tions of the progress of population through several periods of life. Of these, the English Life Table most nearly represents our people and their movements of life. According to this, 1,000,000 males, at the ages of 10 to 15, are the survivors of 1,204,197, at * Thirteenth Report of Life-Insurance Comrftis-- sioners of Massachusetts, 1867, page cvi. 8 Immigration. Number of Children omitted in the Census. Application of Mr. Schade's Theory. After having formed this baseless theory of 1.38 per cent natural increase of population, Mr. Schade proceeds to apply it in a manner equally remarka- ble and equally groundless. Comparing, then, the calculated with the reported numbers of children un- der 5, in 1850, we have, White. Colored. All Colors. Calculated, Reported, Difference, 3,523.793 2,896,458 721,235 601,647 4,245,028 3,498,105 627,335 119,588 746,923 The statements in Mr. De Bow’s volume (of the numbers of deaths and of children under one year wrongly assumed to represent the births) were made with reference to the whole popu- lation, both native and foreign. No distinctions were made as to origin ; these events are given in their totality, of all the people of each State and of the nation. The only distinction re- lates to color and to civil freedom or bondage. If the births were few and the deaths many, these statements ap- ply to the foreign as well as to the na- tive families. All these numbers in the last line, 627,335 white, 119,588 colored, in all 746,923 children under five years old, must have been overlooked and omit- ted in the census of 1850. Children tinder one Year. By the same law, the number of infants under one must have been 922,297, June 1, 1850, instead of 629,446 as stated in the census, show- ing a probable omission of 292,851. But Mr. Schade, finding the inferen- tial rate of 1.38 per cent growth insuffi- cient to account for all the actual in- crease, applied the rule to the Ameri- can population exclusively, those who were here in 1790 and their descend- ants, and claimed all the surplus growth for the foreigners that came after 1790 and their posterity, and for reasons entirely fallacious. The births, in the year June x, 1849 to May 31, 1850, probably were 1,019,417, instead of 629,446,* as sup- posed by Mr. Schade, showing a differ- ence of 389,971, or an excess of 61 per cent of his theory. Births. Deaths in 1850. He says that the foreign population has a much larger proportion in the productive age than the American. This is true ; but he overlooks one im- portant fact. While in the American, as in all fixed populations, the sexes are nearly equal, allowing opportunity of marriage for nearly all; on the other hand, among the immigrants, from Oc- tober t, 1819, to December 31, 1850, whose ages were given, there were 3,264,781 males and 2,099,982 females, or for every 1,000 females 1,554 males, giving opportunity for only two thirds of the males to marry. This fact is somewhat qualified by their large pre- ponderance in the middle and produc- tive periods of life. Comparatively few women become mothers before they complete their twentieth or after their fortieth year. It is therefore safe to assume the period from twenty to forty as the productive age, and as the ground The deaths in 1849-50 were imper- fectly returned. Some whole counties reported none ; others made their re- ports so incompletely as to offer no indication of the numbers who died either in any State or in the whole country. Still less do these returns offer any sound basis for the deter- mination of the rate of mortality in that year. Having then no reports of births, but only a conjecture, widely removed from the fact, of their numbers, and no full return of deaths, the estimate or calculation of the annual natural in- crease, based upon these two classes of events, falls to the ground. * 'Mr. Schade quotes only the whites and free colored. In this paper the whole are taken to show more completely the deficiencies of the seventh census. These are in the same proportion as Mr. Schade’s.statement. Immigration. 9 of comparison between different peoples as to their productiveness. The ratio of women twenty to forty years old was : In period 1790 to 1800 this increase was 1,400,041 “ “ 1800 “ 1810 “ “ “ 1,754,879 “ “ 1810 “ 1820 “ “ “ 608,141 “ “ 1820 “ 1830 “ “ “ 3,012,242 “ “ 1830 “ IS4O “ “ “ 2,440,948 “ “ 1840 “ 1850 “ “ “ 3,215,899 To all Persons. To all Females. Whites in United States, i860, excluding immi- grants, 1850 to i860, . 134 per ct. 27.8 perct. Immigrants arriving 1819 to i860, 18.4 “ 47.0 “ Population of England and Wales, i85i, 15-6 “ 30-7 “ Mr. Schade does not tell us what pro- portion of his supposed foreign element consists of immigrants born in other countries, and what proportion consists of their children and grandchildren born in the United States. He seems to be- lieve that both numbers are very large. As evidence of a much greater immi- gration than is usually supposed, he refers on page 11 to Dr. Chickering’s estimate that fifty per cent should be added to the number of recorded and officially reported immigrants, for those who come unnoticed by public authori- ties, from and through the British Provinces. Then the proportionate productive power to the whole population of each class is 13.4 per cent of the American, and 18.4 per cent of the immigrant, or as 100 of the former to 137 of the latter, so that the alien race, in this respect, exceeds the native by 37 per cent. This excess of productive power among the foreigners in this country ceases with the first generation; for their children and remoter descendants are nearly equally divided as to sexes, and are distributed, like others, through the several ages, as they pass through life. In support of his theory of large nat- ural increase by births in foreign fam- ilies Mr. Schade says: “ The births were in Massachusetts in the three years 1849, 1850, and 1851, of American parents, 47,982, or 578 in 10,000 of their own race ; foreign, 24,523, or 1,491 in 10,000 of their own race.” * Mr. Schade's Calculations of Foreign Increase. In this statement of American and foreign births the figures are correct, but not so the numbers of the respec- tive races that are assumed as the bases of comparison. The foreign race includes all of its own blood, parents and children, whether born abroad or born here. The American race includes only its own children. But Mr. Schade includes in the foreign race only those born in other lands ; and in the Amer- ican he includes not only its own chil- dren, but also those children of foreign- ers who, having been born in the United States since their parents’ arrival, are legally but not ethnologically Ameri- cans. By transferring these children of the aliens from the American to the foreign class, we materially diminish the former and increase its birth-rate, while we increase the latter class and dimin- ish its proportionate fertility ; thus les- sening the apparent preponderance of calculation of the increase of the for- Mr. Schade shows the result of his eign element, and says, “ According to the above calculation, the immi- grants and their descendants number in 1850, “ Since 1790 . • . 12,432,150 “ iBoa .... 11,032,109 “ 1810 . • . 9,277,230 “ 1820 .... 8,669,089 ”1830 . , . 5,656,847 “ 1840 .... 3,215,899 ” * of the increase, from any two succes- The difference between the numbers sive decennial years, to 1850 is the amount of increase during the inter- vening decade. By subtracting the gain, since each year, from the next preceding, we have the following num- bers, supposed by Mr. Schade to have been gained in the intervals, by immi- grants and their descendants : * Page 14. * Page 10. Immigration. growth of the foreign element in our population. Increase of Population not in Ratio of Births. Irish Population. In determining the rate of increase of any population, the birth-rate is but one of the elements to be considered. An equally important matter is the number of years during which the new- born shall remain in the community. In this respect, the numbers of people in a state are like those in a college in which a definite number enter yearly and as many leave at the end of the prescribed course. If a hundred enter and the course be three years, there will be three classes and three hundred students constantly present. But if the course be four years, there will be four classes and four hundred members of the college. A living octogenarian has been annually counted eighty times in the census, and a dead infant only once; and each of these and persons of all intermediate ages have added to the numbers of the people in proportion to the years they have lived. Whatever may be the fertility of the foreign families in Massachusetts, the fact applies almost exclusively to the Irish, who constitute about 70 per cent of the foreign population in Massachu- setts, but less than 40 per cent of the foreigners in the whole country. These Celts are very prone to marry, and their marriages are very productive. But it is yet doubtful whether their high birth-rate adds to the permanent pop- ulation. Certainly their mortality, es- pecially in infancy, is higher than that of American families. Most of them belong to the class whose straitened cir- cumstances and improvident habits are most unfavorable to the development of sound constitutions and the mainte- nance of health and power in their children. The British, the Germans, the Scan- dinavians and others, who constitute more than 60 per cent of the foreigners in this country, are generally of more cautious temperament and are more provident managers ; they are less hasty in marrying, and probably less prolific, and they have a lower rate of mortality. With an equal number of births, the long-lived race adds most to the con- stant population. This is in ratio of the years they may enjoy. The life tables of various countries show the difference. Of 1,000,000, born in each country, the survivors will be : At Ages Sweden. England. France. Holland. Belgium. Austria. Ireland. 20 669,800 662,756 629,901 609,020 534.500 521,300 501,500 40 567,000 538,584 464,869 489,840 408,890 396,200 60 384,900 367,827 205,006 3“.73o 272,420 189,500 One million births, in each year, through several generations, will sup- port a constant population in England, 40,858,204; in France, 34,938>543 ; in Ireland, 22,505,101. portion of the deaths that happened to youth before maturity at twenty. In Massachusetts, from 1841 to 1850 in- clusive, this proportion was 4,687 in 10.000 of all ages. Until 1850, the population of that State was almost entirely American. But then the fam- ilies of the immigrants began to mul- tiply, their numerous children formed a larger proportion of the people, and they were of the perishable class ; con- sequently, from 1851 to 1863 the propor- tion of youth who died grew to 5,733 in 10.000 of all. Deductions drawn from the bills of mortality are not so accurate as those drawn from the life tables ; neverthe- less they offer an approximation to the truth. The table, No. XXXV. in the mortality volume of the eighth census, page 275, contains the results of the analysis of the death records of thirty States and countries, showing the pro- Immigration. 11 Analysis of Mr. Schade's supposed In- crease of the Foreign Element of the Population. In the period, 1800 to 1810, Mr. Schade’s supposed increase of the for- eign element was 1,754,879. They began with an assumed capital of 1,400,041, whose natural increase was 498,372 in these ten years ; and 1,256,507 were to be gained by new im- migrants and their children who should survive to 1810. By calculation, these were 1,066,667 natives of other lands and 189,840 born here ; and the arri- vals were 1,212,117. Mr. Schade does not state the parts which immigrants and their children have respectively contributed to the growth of the foreign element in the several decades of years, from 1790 to 1850. Yet his assertions that the Americans have increased at the an- nual rate of 1.38 per cent only, while all the rest of the growth of popula- tion has been due to the multiplication of foreigners and their children, and that the birth-rate is 5.78 per cent in American and 14.91 per cent, or 2.579 times greater, in foreign families, fur- nish means of approximately determin- ing his rate of natural increase among the aliens. Assuming the excess of births over deaths in the two races to be in the same proportion as their birth-rates, his natural increase of the foreign element is 3-5597 per cent a year. This seems to be a fixed factor in Mr. Schade’s theory of its growth, while immigration is a vari- able factor, changing according to the numbers required to complete the in- crease in the successive decades. The period 181 oto 1820 began with an acquired capital of 3,154,920 foreign- ers and their children. Mr. Schade’s assumed gain was 608,141. The natural increase of only 1.9 per cent annually on those already here added all that was necessary to complete the theory, and no immigrants were required for that purpose in this decade. The next period, 1820 to 1830, was supposed to open with 3,763,06z in the foreign element, and there were 3,012,242 to be added to these. Beside the natural increase of those already here, it was necessary that 1,613,981 new immigrants should arrive, whose survivors and children, in 1830, would complete the supposed gain in these ten years. In the first decade, 1790 to 1800, Mr. Schade supposes the foreign increase to have been 1,400,041. This con- sisted exclusively of new immigrants and their children born after their ar- rival. The foreigners are presumed to have come in equal yearly numbers, and to have had a chance or hope of an average life of five years, before 1800, as well as an annual natural in- crease of 3.5597 per cent for the same period. On these data, an algebraic equation shows that the foreign ele- ment of our population, living at the end of 1800, consisted of 1,188.420 im- migrants, who had arrived since 1790, with their 211,620 children who were born here. To these immigrants living m 1800 must be added those that died after landing here, at an annual rate of 2.4 per cent; these would make, with the survivors, 1,350,472 arrivals in the ten years 1790- 1800. From this time forth there was little need of further immigration to fulfil Mr. Schade’s idea of foreign increase. He had created so large a supply of for- eigners in the early stages of this his- tory, that their natural increase, at his assumed rate, made it necessary that only 11,055 nevv aliens should come in the period 1830 to 1840, and none in the period 1840 to 1850, to give all the enormous gain which his theory re- quires. Moreover, in the last period the natural increase at the presumed rate gave 64,805 more than was needed for his gain of 3,215,899. In three of the decennial periods, Mr. Schade’s increase of the foreign element is greater than the whole ac- tual increase of white population as shown by the successive censuses, leaving no increase, but, on the con- trary, a decrease, of the American ele- ment. 12 Immigration. Period. Increase of whites according to the censuses. Increase of the foreign element by Mr. Schade’s theory. 1790 -1800 1800 - 1810 1820- 1830 1,148,941 1,SS°«I32 2,493,663 1,400,041 1,754,879 3,012,252 ply calculates the American growth at this rate, subtracts the result from the total white and free colored population at each census, and assumes that the several remainders are immigrants since 1790 with their children, grand- children, etc.* He says,| “ The whole white and free colored population, in 1790, having been 3,231,930, it would have amounted, if increased only by the excess of births over deaths,” to the numbers in the second column in the table below, “ while, in fact, it was, exclusive of slaves,” as in the third column, both of which are quoted from his address. The numbers in the fourth and sixth columns are deduced from his figures in the second and third. Mr. Rapp's Estimate of Foreign In- crease. Mr. Kapp’s estimate of the increase of the foreign element of population differs in details from that of Mr. Schade, although he starts with the same theory, that the American in- crease is only 1.38 per cent, and that all the surplus has been derived from foreign sources since 1790. He sim- Mr. Kapp’s statement, t Deductions from Mr. Kapp’s statements. American popula- tion increasing at rate of 1.38 per Total population, exclusive of slaves. Increase of the foreign element. Year. Total since 1790. In periods of ten years each. cent a year. Period. Number. 1800 3,706,674 4,412,896 706,222 1790- 1800 706,222 1810 4.251.>43 6,048,450 x,797.307 l800 - l8lO 1,091,085 1820 4.875,600. 8,100,056 3,224,456 1810- 1820 1,429,149 1830 5-59l'775 10,796,077 5,204,302 1820- 1S30 1,979,846 1840 6,413.161 14,582,008 8,168,847 12,632,140 1830- 1840 2,964.545 1850 7.355.42,3 19,987,563 1840- 1850 4,463,293 i860 8,435.882 27,489,662 19,053,780 1850- i860 6,421,640 1865 9.034.249 about 30,000,000 § 20,965,755 five years. i860 - 1865 1,911,975 Mr. Kapp says, “ Samuel Blodgett, a very accurate statistician, wrote, in 1806, that from the best records and esti- mates then attainable, the immigrants arriving, between 1784 and 1794, did not average more than 4,000 per annum. Seybert assumes that 6,000 persons ar- rived in the United States, from for- eign countries, between 1790 and 1810. Both averages seem too large: 3,000 for the first, 4,000 for the second, period named is a very liberal estimate.”* Mr. Kapp makes no objection to Pro- fessor Tucker’s estimate of 114,000 arrivals, between 1810 and 1820. He quotes, with seeming approval, the government reports of the numbers that came, in subsequent years, except for the ten years 1844 to 1854, when he appears to think that the German immigrants were 30 per cent, and the Irish 28 per cent, more than those given by national documents. For the rest there is no apparent difference between his estimates and the returns of the custom-house officers. It is safe, then, to assume that the numbers estimated by Messrs. Seybert and Tucker and those reported by the government officials, with the excep- tion of the ten years 1845 to 1855, in~ clude, at least, all the increase of the foreign element which Mr. Kapp credits to actual immigration from other coun- tries ; and that all the rest of this in- crease has been due, in his opinion, to births of foreigners’ children and grand- ♦ Address, p. 16. t Page 17. t Page 17. § Estimated in round numbers. ♦ Address, p. 5. Immigration. 13 children in the United States since 1790. With these assumptions and on the basis of Mr. Kapp’s figures, the following calculations of the number and rate of births in foreign families in the several decennial periods are made: The number of births necessary to complete Mr. Kapp’s supposed in- crease in this decade was 840,504. The number of productive years of fe- males between twenty and forty was 46,505. Dividing the number of births by the productive years shows that every female must have borne 18.07 children in each year in order to sat- isfy the theory. Period 1790 - 1800. Mr. Kapp’s assumed foreign gain was . 706,22 a Foreign Immigrants . , . 50,000 Surviving to 1800 .... 44,282 Leaving 661,940 Mr. Kapp’s assumed foreign gain in this Period 1800- 1810. to be supplied by children born in this period and living to 1800. Beside these 661,940 who survived to 1800, there were naturally others born, who died in the course of the period. These must be added to the survivors to complete the totality of births. The due pro- portion of these deaths was 26.976 per cent of the survivors, 178,564; add these to the survivors, 661,940, and there were 840,504 births necessary, in foreign families, to complete Mr. Kapp’s period was 1,091,085 The increase of foreigners was, by immi- gration 61,993 To be accounted for, by births of children living to 1810 ..... 1,029,092 Add the number who died, in course of the period 278,953 And we have 1,308,045 the number of births in this decade necessary to produce the increase assumed by Mr. Kapp. There is another contingency to be provided for. According to the theo- ry of Messrs. Schade and Kapp, the gains that accrued in each decade were supposed increase in this decade. Sources of Natural Increase.. permanent. That is, whatever losses happened by death, these were com- Mr. Kapp’s theory of foreign in- crease includes, in its sources of births, only the immigrants who arrived after 1790, and their descendants, when they had reached the productive age. Hence all the children that enter into his esti- mate of the increase of this period were born of the 50,000, who came between 1790 and 1800. These strangers are presumed to have arrived in equal yearly numbers. They had a chance or hope of living an average of five years each before 1800, and the sum of all their lives is presumed to be 250,000 years in this decade. pensated by an equal increase of births. In 1800, the beginning of this period, there were presumed to be 641,940 children surviving from the births in foreign families since 1790. These constituted the greater part of the gain at that time. They were subject to 2.4 per cent annual mortality, and thereby lost 138,446, in course of these ten years, and so many were needed to be born and survive to the end to fill their places. As the last were only the sur- vivors of the compensating births, the number 37,347 who died among them must also be added to those born in this period, making 175,793 births ne- cessary to supply the loss on the pre- vious increase. Add these to those needed for the increase of this period, 1,308,103, and there was a total of Of the 50,000 immigrants, the fe- males were 19,577 ; 47 per cent of these females, or 9,301, were twenty to forty years old, and therefore of the mar- riageable age. If all these females were married at twenty, and lived in uninterrupted wed- lock until they had completed their for- tieth year, the whole enjoyed a produc- tive life equal to 46,505 years in this decade, between 1790 and 180 a 1,483,896 births necessary in this pe- riod to sustain and complete Mr. Kapp’s supposed increase. The sources of this increase or the productive power were, l. The 44,282 14 Immigration. survivors of the immigrants of the pre- vious period ; 2. The 70,000 who ar- rived in this decade. Of the former, 17,338 were females, and 8,148 of these were of the productive age, twenty to forty, who had a chance or a hope of living ten years each, or a total of eign element in this decade, every fe- male between the ages of twenty and forty must have borne, on an average, 1.9 children a year. In the next period, 1820 to 1830, Mr. Kapp’s theory implies the necessity of 3’376,936 births for the new increase, and to compensate for losses by death among the immigrants and their chil- dren. There were 4.290,180 produc- tive years among the females, con- sequently there must have been an average of one birth in every sixteen and a half months. 81,480 years within this period. Of those who arrived in this decade, 27,881 were females, and 12,881 were of the productive age. They had a chance or hope of an average of five years of life, and the whole of 64,405 years, within this period. In the following period,. 1830 to 1840, there vras a need of 4,374.330 births. There were 7,742,897 productive years, and an average of one birth in one and a quarter years of female life, between the ages of twenty and forty. The productive years were, then, of the first class 81,480 Of the second class .... 64,405 Total 145,883 Dividing the total births required,. 1,483,896, among the productive years, gives 10.13 births a year for each fe- male between twenty and forty years old. This also presupposes that every woman was married at twenty, and lived in uninterrupted wedlock until With so large an accumulation of for- eigners and their descendants assumed to be living in the United States in 1840, the proportions of births needed for Mr. Kapp’s supposed increase, in the subsequent periods, do not exceed the bounds of possibility; and if his data thus far are correct, his deductions may also be admitted. she was past forty. Period 1810- 1820. Mr. Kapp’s assumed foreign gain, in this period, was ...... 1,427,149 The increase of immigrants living in 1810 was 80,100 Leaving 1,347,049 Rate of Natural Increase diminished with Increase of Foreigners. to be supplied by births of children who would be alive in 1820. It is a noteworthy fact, that the rate of natural increase has diminished with the increase of foreigners. I3y com- paring the numbers of foreigners in our population with those of the total whites, at the several decennial years, or the average numbers of the foreign- ers with the average numbers of total whites during the decennial periods, we obtain the proportions between these classes at each period. For this addition to the living in 1820, and for the losses by death in the period, it was necessary that 1,710,428 should be born. To compensate for the losses among the children born in the two previous decades and surviving to 1810, 442,786 births were needed; making, in all, 2,153,214 births requisite in this period to provide for the as- sumed increase and to keep the former The difference between the total numbers of whites at each decennial year and the total whites, minus the arriving foreigners at the next follow- ing decennial year, shows the natural increase or excess of births over deaths in the intervening period. And hence the rate of natural increase is easily calculated. increase full. The sources of these births were the foreigners who arrived previous to 1820 and their children born here and reach- ing the marriageable age in this period. The sum of their presumed productive years was 1,130,303 ; and in order that they should add the number of children living in 1820, needful to sustain Mr. Kapp’s theory of the increase of the for- By these means the following table is made: Immigration. Proportion of Foreigners to total Whites and Natural Increase of Whites. Decennial Years. Decennial Periods. Year. Total Whites. Foreigners. Whites to one For- eigner. Period. Average Whites. Average Foreigners. Whites to one Foreigner. Rate of natural Increase. 1790 1800 3,162,020 4-305.961 44,282 113 1790 -1800 3,733,99° 25,000 149 per cent. 34 77 1810 5,862,093 96-725 60 l800 - l8lO 5,084,027 69,506 73 34-72 1820 8,043,915 176,825 45 1810 - 1820 6,953,004 136,775 51 35-5° 1830 10,537,378 315,830 33 1820 ~ 183O 9,290,646 246,327 37 28.92 1840 14,189,108 859,202 IS 1830- 1840 12,363,243 5«7,5i6 22 28.66 1850 19.553.068 2,240,535 8 184O “ 185O 16,891,088 1,549,866 IO.7 26.77 i860 26,957,471 4.136,175 6 1850 - i860 23,255,299 3,188,353 7 26-'3I 1870 33,586,989 5.566,546 6 i860 - iS/O 30,273,664 4,801,360 6-5 IS 97 In the twenty years 1790-1810, when the average foreign population was one ninety-third of the total whites, the rate of natural increase was 30.9 per cent greater than it was in the twenty years, 1840-1860, when they constituted two seventeenths of our people. sources of population, they assume a fruitfulness of one or the other, or of both, beyond all human experience. There is not only no ground for the theory of the limited growth of the American, and of the unlimited growth of the foreign, element in the population of the United States, but, on the con- trary, the natural increase is at a lower rate in the foreign than in the American families. The theories of Messrs. Schade and Kapp, in respect to the increase of the foreign element of the population of the United States, being built without foun- dation, and being sustained by explana- tions at war with the recorded facts of the censuses, lead to deductions incon- .sistent with each other and at variance with the recognized laws of population and mortality. They imply an incredi- ble immigration in the early periods, or an impossible birth-rate, to produce a sufficiency of the foreign element to complete their supposed increase in the several decades of years. Or if neither of these is admitted to the fullest ex- tent herein calculated for Mr. Schade and Mr. Kapp, if Mr. Schade is sup- posed to mean a larger birth-rate than he seems to indicate, and Mr. Kapp a larger immigration than he states, and consequently a smaller immigra- tion is necessary for the former, and a lower birth-rate is needful for the lat- ter, to establish their theories of foreign increase, in whatever proportion they divide their supposed gains of the for- eign element between these, the only The whole number of foreigners liv- ing in this country, January 1, 1870, was 5,566,546 ; and their families, parents and children, amounted to 9,734,843 persons. Add to these the grandchil- dren of the immigrants of the forty years 1790-1830, who came early enough for their children to be born here, grow to maturity, marry and be- come heads of families, and the whole will not much exceed 10.500,000; ■whereas if the rates of natural increase were equal for both races from 1790, the American element would have been 21,479,595, and the foreign 11,607,394, in 1870 ; and these classes several- ly would have been 19,110,078 and 7,847,373 in iB6O, and 15,644,448 and 3,908,620 in 1850, and the numbers in native families would have been 80 per cent in 1850 and 71 per cent in iB6O, instead of 36 and 29 per cent as sup- posed by Mr. Kapp. But the propor- tion of the whole white population is even more largely American than this. Edward Jarvis.